| Country | Date | Event Type | Market Event | Context | Market Reaction | Indicator | Open | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 04 March 2023 | TALK | BOE Pill: Caution is still needed in assessing inflation prospects on potential persistance of domestically generated inflation. Lots of policy-in-the-pipeline still to come though. BOE Tenreyro: An earlier and faster reversal of recent hikes is likely to keep inflation from falling well below target/. UK facing significant inflation undershoot. | BOE’s most dovish policymaker, has 2 more meetings before her term ends. | GBPUSD touches 10 month highs of 1.2525 (levels last seen June 2022) in a sign the BOE speak has little impact. | GBPUSD | 1.2410 | 1.2500 |
| Australia | 04 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA: Keeps rates on hold, cash rate at 3.6% RBA Statement: Inflation has peaked, labout mkt remains tight, further tightening might be needed. | Pause after 10 consecutive hikes, in line with exptd. | AUDUSD moves lower on dovish move, touches lows of 0.6720 for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6781 | 0.6751 |
| US | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar S&P Mfg PMI 49.2 last 47.3 Mar ISM Mfg PMI 46.3 last 47.7 Fed Cook: Disinflationary process happening, but we are not there yet. Labour mkt still tight, seeing inflation as result. Fed Bullard: OPEC+ decision to cut output was unexptd, ↑ in oil prices will make Fed’s job of ↓ inflation more challenging. | Mfg activity lowest in nearly 3 yrs. ISM < exptd leads to weaker USD as it adds to narrative Fed is nearing end of hiking cycle. OPEC+ impact on USD up was limited. | USD gives up gains after OPEC + on all other data. Yields dropped too. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.59 4.09% | 102.09 3.97% |
| UK | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar Mfg PMI Final 47.9 last 49.3 | < 50 for 8 consecutive months. | USD ↓ for the day and helps GBPUSD. | GBPUSD | 1.2325 | 1.2410 |
| Euro | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar Mfg PMI Final 47.3 last 48.5 ECB Guindos: Believe headline inflation likely to decline while underlying inflation dynamics remain strong. | Hawkish comments and PMI revised up together boosted the EURUSD. | EURUSD rebounded sharply from lows of 1.0788 to over 1.09 level. | EURUSD | 1.0839 | 1.0895 |
| Russia | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar Mfg PMI 53.2 last 53.6 | Another solid month of expansion. Supported by faster ↑ in output and further ↑ in new ord. | RUB closed weaker for the day though. | USDRUB | 76.9800 | 78.6500 |
| India | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar Mfg PMI 56.4 last 55.3 | Oil was the main theme of the move in INR> Economists: 10% ↑ in oil leads to CA deficit ↑ of 0.3 – 0.5% of GDP. | INR moves driven by ↑ in oil prices, USDINR touched highs of 82.45 | USDINR | 82.1300 | 82.1600 |
| China | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar Mfg PMI 50 last 51.6 | Notably < exptd. This focuses on smaller firms, miss largely driven by weakness in export orders. Indicates foreign demand will remain a headwind. | CNY weakened slightly as USDCNY touches highs of 6.8940 for the day. | USDCNY | 6.8671 | 6.8771 |
| Australia | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar Mfg Final PMI 49.1 last 50.5 Feb Retail Sales MoM Final 0.2% last 1.8% | Less impact from the data, as mkts focused on RBA tomorrow. | AUDUSD touched multi week highs of 0.6790 (levels last seen 24 Feb), steadies ahead of RBA. | AUDUSD | 0.6685 | 0.6781 |
| US | 03 April 2023 | EVENT | Saudia Arabia and OPEC+ announced surprise round of output cuts of around 1.16mln bpd. | Potentially bad sign for global inflation days after slowdown in US PCE that boosted optimism. Also cements chance of US hike. | Exptd ↑ in crude prices. Friday’s close was 79.89 in Brent and it broke the $80 level on Monday. | Brent Crude | 86.0000 | 84.9300 |
| US | 31 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb PCE MoM 0.3% last 0.6% Fed Williams: Various measures of longer run inflation expectations have remained anchored at levels consistent with our 2% goal. Expect inflation to decline to around 3.25% this yr, before moving closer to our longer run goal in next 2 yrs. Fed Colins: Tight monetary policy key to lowering inflation. Surprises make it hard to predict next FOMC. | PCE < exptd and previous. Its slowing but only gradually, still elevated to accommodate 1 more hike. | Firmer USD though yields have dropped for the week and day on expectations Fed is nearing end of hiking cycle. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.19 4.12% | 102.5 4.02% |
| Euro | 31 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Unemp rate 6.6% as last Mar CPI Flash 6.9% last 8.5% | Core inflation toucehd record highs – ECB raising rates more than Fed. | EURUSD closed the day lower as mainly on USD related moves. | EURUSD | 1.0904 | 1.0842 |
| UK | 31 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Final QoQ 0.1% last -0.1% Q4 CA -£2.48bln, last £-12.74bln | Economic outlook overshadows avoiding recession. | GBPUSD weakened, touched lows of 1.2324 | GBPUSD | 1.2384 | 1.2329 |
| China | 31 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar NBS Mfg PMI 51.9 last 52.6 Mar NBS Non Mfg PMI 58.2 last 56.3 | Shows an economy in recovery. Other themes are Biden’s double taxation rule – to antagonize China if Taiwan treated as soverign. | CNY strengthens for the day. | USDCNY | 6.8705 | 6.8671 |
| Japan | 31 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Unemp rate 2.6% last 2.4% Feb Retail Sales YoY 6.6% last 5% Feb Industrial Prodn MoM Prelim 4.4% last -5.3% Feb Industrial Prodn YoY Prelim -0.6% last -3.1% | Lunar NY not only skews Chinese data but also trading partners. Industrial Prodn and Retail sales > exptd. | USDJPY traded in narrow ranges though ending higher for the day. | USDJPY | 132.6300 | 132.7200 |
| Euro | 30 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK TALK | ECB Economic Bulletin: Inflation projected to remain too high for long – 5.3% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Persistently elevated mkt conditions could tighten broader credit conditions more strongly than exptd and dampen confidence. ECB Elderson: Must reduce the very high rate of inflation. | Bulletin was released before the most recent banking stress, might take next month’s report to get the full picture. | EURUSD edged up also on German inflation data > exptd, to highs of 1.0962 | EURUSD | 1.0843 | 1.0904 |
| US | 30 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Q4 GDP Final QoQ 2.6%, last 3.2% Fed Barkin: If inflation persists, we can react by raising rates further. Content with FOMC trajectory. Fed Kashkari: US has high inflation but its not driven by wages. Have to bring inflation down. Unclear how much of banking stresses of the past few wks leading to a sustained credit crunch. | GDP slight downgrade from previous est, but shows resilience despite ↑ in rates. | USD continues to ease. | USD index | 102.6200 | 102.1400 |
| Russia | 29 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Unemp rate 3.5% last 3.6% Jan Real wage growth YoY 0.6% as last. Feb Retail Sales YoY -7.8% last -6.6% Feb Industrial Prodn YoY -1.7% last -2.4%. Feb GDP YoY -3.1% last -3.2% | Unemp rate and Ind Output < exptd. Putin points at low unemp rate and marginally higher wages as evidence of gradual recovery. Low Unemp is also evidence of labour shortage. | RUB strengthens for the day. | USDRUB | 76.5500 | 77.3200 |
| Euro | 29 March 2023 | TALK | ECB Kazmir: We agreed we will not give guidance about May meeting. Core inflation key in nearest decisions, We should continue raising rates, possibly at slower pace. ECB Lane: Rates must rise if banking tension has no or ‘fairly limited’ impact. ECB Schnabel: Underlying inflation proving sticky, recent ↓ in energy costs may not pull it down as fast as some expect. | Hawkish rhetoric but ECB talk fails to move the needle. | Extremely Tight range trading in EURUSD. | EURUSD | 1.0842 | 1.0843 |
| Japan | 29 March 2023 | TALK | BOJ Uchida: Wont foretell mkts on information ahead of every MPC meeting. BOJ will look at current policy including YCC and amend if necessary. BOJ Kuroda: Japan closer than before to sustainably hit 2% inflation target. Wage pressure is heightening. PM Kashida: Aiming to narrow wage gaps between Japan and overseas. Wage hikes will be one of 3 pillars of new capitalism. | To add Fitch also affirmed Japan’s ‘A’ rating with stable outlook. End of fiscal year flows drags down JPY + banking failure fears abate. Uchida’s amending YCC talk weighed on the JPY as well. | USDJPY touched highs of 132.89 as JPY bears brunt of risk rally. | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 130.81 0.287% | 132.85 0.301% |
| UK | 29 March 2023 | TALK | BOE Mann: Difficult for BOE to do its Job in H2 as Headline Inflation slows but Core remains persistent. Bank collapses not a MPC issue, very clear to me which way to go while voting for 25 bp hike. Credit conditions part of rate decisions. | Rate hike play and Risk on mode on easing health of financial system the main mover for GBP related assets | GBPUSD touches highs of 1.2361 for the day but closes down lower. | GBPUSD | 1.2341 | 1.2311 |
| US | 28 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Mar Consumer Confidence 104.2 exptd 103.4 Fed Barr: Anticipate need to strengthen capital and liquidity standards. Fed will propose ‘long term debt requirement’ for big banks not designated as global systemically important. | No surprises from Barr. | US yields were higher but that did not help the USD, index at lows of 102.38 | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.75 3.09% | 102.38 4.08% |
| Australia | 28 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Retail Sales MoM Prelim 0.2% last 1.8% Feb CPI YoY 6.8% last 7.4% | Reinforces view that economy is slowing. CPI < exptd, RBA target band 2-3. News that Treasurer Chalmers will convene a meeting of top financial regulators to check impact of volatility in mkts boosted optimism a bit. | Despite the data, risk on mood meant a firm bias in AUDUSD as it closed higher for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6648 | 0.6705 |
| Euro | 27 March 2023 | TALK | ECB De Cos: Future monetary policy will depend on 3: Ecnomic, Financial data and core inflation. ECB Simkus: Bank liquidity and capitalization high in Euro area. ECB Centento: Wage increase still compatible with monetary policy, not observing 2nd round effect on wage setting. ECB Schnabel:@ No sign of weakening in labour mkt, balance sheet exptd to decline meaningfuly over coming yrs. | Lack of other significant relesae or event for the day, ECB speak is broadly EUR +ve. Mjkts generally quiet. | EURUSD moves with a bullish bias for the day, closed higher for the day. | EURUSD | 1.0772 | 1.0797 |
| UK | 27 March 2023 | TALK | BOE Bailey: Additional tightening reqd if inflation continues, recently evidence pointed to more resilient activity in the economy. In social media age striking how quickly bank liquidity pressures can emerge. Rates likely to remain below pre 2008 levels. | Upbeat assessment by Bailey. | Rangebound but overall GBP+ve | GBPUSD | 1.2219 | 1.2286 |
| China | 27 March 2023 | TALK | Fin Min Liu: China will intensify efforts to implement a strong fiscal policy and efficient taxation system this year. | Mover has been the fall in industrial profit. | USD gains for the day impacting USDCNY. | USDCNY | 6.8670 | 6.8829 |
| US | 24 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Mar PMI Flash Manufacturing 49.3 last 47.3 Services 53.8 last 50.6 Comp 53.3 last 50.1 Fed Bullard: Swift response to bank stress allows monetary policy focus on inflation. Latest FOMC projections suggest one more rate hike. | Fastest uptick in US pvt sector business activity in almost a year, but moves driven by DB CDS ↑. Safe haven demand outweighs rate hike expectations. | USD ↑ on safe haven demand due to DB. | USD index | 102.6000 | 103.1100 |
| Euro | 24 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Mar PMI Flash Manufacturing 47.1 last 48.5 Services 55.6 last 52.7 Comp 54.1 last 52 ECB Nagel: ECB must continue to ↑ rates to fight inflation. Wage developments likely to prolong the prevailing period of high inflation. ECB Lagarde: Euro area banking sectory is resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. No trade off between price stability and financial stability. | > exptd PMI data fails to create an impact as in separate news, DB CDS ↑ and shares dive. Theme was risk aversion. | EURUSD ↓ on DB news to lows of 1.0712. | EURUSD | 1.0828 | 1.0759 |
| UK | 24 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Feb Retail Sales MoM 1.2% last 0.9% YoY -3.5% last -5.2% Mar PMI Flash Manufacturing 48 last 49.3 Services 52.8 last 53.5 Comp 52.2 last 53.1 BOE Mann: Feb Retail sales are fairly reliable. My vote for 25 bp hike motivated in part by fact inflation expectations have moderated. BOE Bailey: Very relieved inflation no longer rising like it was last year. | Surprise growth in retail sales, and PMI points to avoided recession but fails to create an impact as in separate news, DB CDS ↑ and shares dive. Theme was risk aversion. | GBP ↑ against EUR but ↓/USD due to USD safe haven demand. GBPUSD touched lows of 1.2189 | GBPUSD EURGBP | 1.2285 0.8815 | 1.2228 0.8787 |
| Japan | 24 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb CPI YoY 3.3% last 4.3% Feb Core CPI 3.1% last 4.2% Mar PMI Flash: Services 54.2 last 54 Manufacturing 48.6 last 47.7 Composite 51.9 last 51.1 | CPI lowest since last Sep. Off 41 year high previous month, but still > 2% BOJ target. On PMI, growth continues to be strong in services but struggles with manufacturing. | JPY strneghtns for the day and USDJPY breaches 130 level to lows of 129.63 | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 130.77 0.289% | 130.71 0.26% |
| Australia | 23 March 2023 | ECONDATA | March Flash PMI Manufacturing 48.7 last 50.5 Services 48.2 last 50.7 Comp 48.1 last 50.6 | Private sector activity softens but business cofidence rises. Manufacturing PMI at 19 mnth lows, Comp at 3 month lows. | AUDUSD slightly ↓ on the data but closed slightly higher for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6681 | 0.6687 |
| UK | 23 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK TALK | BOE: Official bank rate raised by 25bps from 4 to 4.25% on a 7-2 vote favouring hike. BOE Bailey: Don’t know if 4.25% will be peak in rates. Believe inflation will ↓ rapidly before summer. BOE Mann: | Fully in line with exptd. Very little guidance given. Swati Dhingra and Tenreyo voted to pause. | Initial ↑ in GBPUSD and UK yields after the release but corrected back to narrow levels. 2 year yields closed lower. | GBPUSD UK 2 year yields | 1.2262 3.49% | 1.2285 3.27% |
| US | 22 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | Fed hikes rates – Fed Funds rate by 25 bps to 5% Fed’s revised SEP (Summary of econ projections) median view of end 2023 fed funds rate unch at 5.1%, continued QE Ops – $95bln a month. Statement: Labour mkt remains strong, inflation elevated, strongly committed to returning inflation to 2% target. Fed Powell: Isolated banking problems can threaten banking system if not addressed. Recent events will result in tighter conditions – may mean tightening has less work to do. Rate cuts this year NOT our baseline expectation. | Given median plot at 5.1%, indicates Fed is nearly done. Mkts paid little heed to Powel’s stress on no rate cuts this year. Widely expected decision, and points to only one more hike this yr. Statement no longer says ‘ongoing increases’. | USD slide across the board on the dovish hike. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.19 4.17% | 102.34 3.94% |
| Japan | 22 March 2023 | TALK | Matsuno: Will allocate more than JPY 2 trln to cushion blow to economy from ↑ prices. Fin Min Suzuki: Financial system stable, will use reserve funds to respond to prices flexibly. Important for Forex to move stably reflecting fundamentals. | Moves driven mainly by USD on Fed’s dovish hike. | USDJPY ↓ – JPY among the top performers and JP yields strengthened. | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 132.47 0.26% | 131.36 0.32% |
| Euro | 22 March 2023 | TALK | ECB Lagarde: Must and will bring down inflation to target. No evidence underlying inflation trending down. Neither committed to raise rates further nor finished hiking rates. ECB Nagel: There is still some way to go, but we are approaching restrictive territory. ECB Wunsch: Will probably need to raise rates if mkts stabilize but need time to assess full impact of banking crisis. | Moves driven mainly by USD on Fed’s dovish hike but comments are broadly EUR +ve | Mkt moves on dovish Fed which was USD -ve. | EURUSD | 1.0765 | 1.0854 |
| UK | 22 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb CPI YoY 10.4% last 10.1% MoM 1.1% last -0.6% | >> exptd, rises 1st time in 4 months. Unwelcome news for BOE that has meeting today. Expectation still a hike. | Unsurprisingly saw GBPUSD ↑ after data, Rallies even further to touch highs of 1.2335 for the day on dovish Fed which was USD -ve. | GBPUSD | 1.2216 | 1.2262 |
| Australia | 21 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA Minutes: Further monetary tightening expected to be required to bring inflation down. Recent releases on GDP, wages, inflation were softer than exptd but shortfalls to expectations not too large. | Less hawkish | AUDUSD ↓ to lows of 0.6649 (breaching 0.6700 level) for the day despite the broad USD weakness. | AUDUSD | 0.6715 | 0.6668 |
| US | 20 March 2023 | TALK | Trsry Sec Yellen: US Financial system safest and most liquid in the world, USD reserve status should be priced and not be threatened. | Better risk appetite in the mkt due to UBS buying CS and coordinated action by central banks. | USD and VIX (Vol Index) ↓ broadly for the day | USD Index | 103.3100 | 103.2500 |
| China | 20 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | PBoC ↓ Reserve requirement by 25 bps. This will exclude financial institutions that have implemented 5% RRR. Will not resort to flood like stimulus, keep total credid appropriate. PBOC keeps 1 year LPR at 3.65% as exptd. | Surprise move on RRR, prospects of higher liquidity. Seen as a proactive policy. | CNY strengthens for the day but Global banking and related risk aversion moves define USDCNY. | USDCNY | 6.8845 | 6.8765 |
| Japan | 20 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK TALK | BOJ Summary of Opinions: Board memebrs saw need to maintain ultra loose monetary policy, economy showing signs of +ve cycle. Chief Cabinet Sec Matsuno: Financial system is stable as a whole. | Mkts overall muted. | JPY moves still defined by safe haven flows. USDJPY touches lows of 130.58 – lowest since Feb 11. | USDJPY | 131.8000 | 131.3100 |
| Australia | 20 March 2023 | TALK | RBA Kent: Australian banks are unquestionably strong, Capital, liquidity positions well > apra’s regulatory requirements. | Risk on mood on CS deal + positive comments. | AUDUSD ↑ on upbeat comments, highs of 0.6740 (highest since 7 March) | AUDUSD | 0.6690 | 0.6715 |
| Euro | 20 March 2023 | EVENT TALK | UBS Buys Credit Suisse after weekend negotiations. CS’s CHF 1.6bln of AT1 contingent capital bonds written down to zero. ECB Lagarde: Pecking order for any write downs in Europe very clear. Highly recommend complete Basel III implementation. ‘Very confident’ capital and liquidity positions of Euro area banks well in excess of requirements. ECB has more ground to cover based on current baseline. Will understand labour market in the spring. | Uncertainty especially over CoCos, rush for safety. | Yields hit lowest and EURUSD | EURUSD | 1.0686 | 1.0717 |
| US | 20 March 2023 | EVENT | Fed + 5 central banks coordinated action to boost liquidity USD funding. Daily Operations will begin Monday and last till end April. | The markets are focusing on the Fed’s decision in coming days. | Weekend news | USD Index | 103.8600 | 103.2800 |
| China | 17 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | PboC ↓ Reserve requirement by 25 bps. This will exclude financial institutions that have implemented 5% RRR. Will not resort to flood like stimulus, keep total credid appropriate. | Surprise move, prospects of higher liquidity. Seen as a proactive policy. | CNY strengthens for the day but Global banking and related risk aversion moves define USDCNY. | USDCNY | 6.8960 | 6.8845 |
| Euro | 17 March 2023 | TALK | ECB Muller: Not many euro area banks that took risks like SVB did. SNB intervention in CS made decision making easier. ECB Villeroy: We sent a strong message of confidence (rates) ECB Simkus: Terminal rate has not been reached yet. ECB Kazimir: Need to continue to rate hikes but no need to speculate on May decision. | Investor sentiment broadly fragile as focus was on CS/UBS deal. Looks like ECB does not expect much contagion from CS. | EURUSD is generally on front foot also as USD ↓ and mood improves. | EURUSD | 1.0609 | 1.0664 |
| Japan | 17 March 2023 | TALK | Fin Min Suzuki: Prices are weighing on households, need to respond to inflation with additional measures. In talks with BOJ, taking response to financial situations. BOJ Kuroda: Possible to further lower short term rate from -0.1% but cannot comment. Top FX Diplomat Kanda: Govt, BOJ must take seamless response to market moves. | All moves linked to banking crisis, related risk aversion. | JPY emerges as winner on the back of safe haven flows and risk aversion. | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 133.71 0.30% | 131.83 0.285% |
| Russia | 17 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | CBR keeps rates at 7.5% CBR Gov: Hike more likely this year than cuts. Inflationary pressures remain as widening budget deficit and deteriorating terms of trade pressure the RUB. | Little reaction from RUB. | USDRUB | 76.8000 | 76.9400 | |
| US | 17 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Industrial Prodn YoY -0.2% last +0.5% MoM 0% last 0.3% March Prelim UoM Consumer sentiment 63.4 last 67 | Consumer sentiment ↓ for 1st time in 4 months. | USD continues decline together with yields following rescue of First Republic Bank by 11 banks. | USD Index US 10 year yields | 104.41 3.58% | 103.7 3.43% |
| Euro | 17 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb CPI YoY Final 8.5% last 8.6%, MoM 0.8% last -0.2% | Moves mainly focusing on banking crisis in US and Europe. | EURUSD continues ↑ touching highs of 1.0685 for the day and closed higher. | EURUSD | 1.0609 | 1.0664 |
| Euro | 16 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | ECB Rate Decn: ↑ rates by 50 bps as inflation remains major concern. Reiterating importance of data driven approach to monetary policy moving forward. ECB’s policy toolkit fully equipped to provide liquidity support to Euro area financial system if needed. ECB Lagarde: If baseline persists, ECB will still have a lot more ground to cover. Wage pressures have strengthened. Not seeing a lot of improvement in underlying inflation. | Follows through the long communicated guidance, but Limited signalling regarding future policy against banking crisis (CS). | Relatively narrow moves on EURUSD on the expected rate hike – one of the tightest ranges, EURUSD trading between 1.0635 and 1.0550 | EURUSD | 1.0576 | 1.0609 |
| Japan | 16 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Industrial Prodn Final YoY -3.1% last -2.4% MoM -5.3% last 0.3% | Focus on banking crisis | JPY becomes an outperformer on risk aversion, safe haven flows. USDJPY touches lows of 131.71 | USDJPY | 133.3700 | 133.7100 |
| Australia | 16 March 2023 | ECONDATA | March Consumer Inflation Expectations 5%, last 5.1% Feb Unemp rate 3.5% last 3.7% Feb Emp change 64.6K last -10.9K Participation rate 66.6% | Data > exptd, Unemp rate matching lowest since 1970s. Focus still on global banking turmoil. | AUDUSD ↑ on upbeat data, and closed higher for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6613 | 0.6651 |
| UK | 15 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | Spring Budget Key highlights – Childcare and tax reforms to ↑ pace of growth. Cancel of planned £500 hike in energy bills. | Largely as expected budget, exception of abilition of lifetime pension allowance. Hunt avoided big tax cuts and focus was on confidence and certainty. | Mixed response to the budget by GBP – drops/USD but gains/EUR. | GBPUSD EURGBP | 1.2154 0.8824 | 1.2056 0.8770 |
| Japan | 15 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb YoY Imports 8.3% last 17.5% Exports 6.5% last 3.5% Balance of Trade -0.89 trln JPY, last -3.49trln JPY. Fin Min Suzuki: Goal of govt to achieve pace of wage rises more than inflation. | Largest Feb trade deficit to date. Global mkts all tracking turmoil in Credit Suisse, speculations major central banks could take less aggressive approach in tightening. | Safe haven demand boosts the JPY. | USDJPY | 134.2100 | 133.3700 |
| US | 15 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb PPI MoM -0.1% last 0.3% Feb Retail Sales MoM -0.4% last 3.2%, YoY 5.4% last 7.7% | Both ↓, Gives Fed more room to potentially pause as they weigh banking crisis impact against inflation risks. Bank term Funding Program seems to have calmed mkts. | Safe haven demand driven ↑ in the USD as banking crisis spills. However, long term USD yields are ↓ which might put a check on the USD. | USD index US 10 year yields | 103.73 3.69% | 104.64 3.45% |
| Euro | 15 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Industrial Prodn MoM 0.7% last -1.3% YoY 0.9% last -2% | Manufacturing sector recovery gaining traction. Global mkts all tracking turmoil in Credit Suisse, speculations major central banks could take less aggressive approach in tightening. | CS related jitters – EURUSD and EU bond yields ↓ massively. | EURUSD EU 10 year yields | 1.0732 2.45% | 1.0576 2.18% |
| India | 15 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Imports $51.31bln, last $50.66bln, Exports $33.88bln, last $32.91bln. Balance of Trade $-17.43bln | Driven by fall in imports but Commerce Sec: Figures are encouraging, able to keep up the momentum. | INRfails to show strength despite soft US inflation data also also on USD demand from banks. | USDINR | 82.2250 | 82.8600 |
| China | 15 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan-Feb Industrial Prodn YoY 2.4% last 1.3% Jan-Feb Retail Sales YoY 3.5% last -1.8% Feb Unemp rate 5.6% last 5.5% | Retail sales back to growth while factory activity expanded slower than exptd, property sector remained weak. Global mkts all tracking turmoil in Credit Suisse, speculations major central banks could take less aggressive approach in tightening. | CNY continues to remain in backfoot, also capped by Fed’s uncertainty. | USDCNY | 6.8675 | 6.9062 |
| Japan | 15 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | BOJ Meeting Minutes: Important to continue with easing, members agreed economy exptd to recover. Inflation likely to slow toward latter half of next fiscal yr. | Dovish minutes, but lacked surprises. | USD yields are up despite rising odds for smaller hike on SVB updates. | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | ||
| US | 14 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb CPI YoY 6% last 6.4% MoM 0.4% last 0.5% Feb Core CPI MoM 0.5% last 0.4% | Fed more closely watches the core rate. Focus is fully on banking regulation on SVB and Signature bank collapse. | USD shows little reaction to data, in narrow ranges. | USD Index | 103.6700 | 103.5900 |
| UK | 14 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Unemp rate 3.7% as last Feb Claimant Count -11.2K last -30.3K | Signs of cooling as wage growth slowed 1st time in more than a year. | Muted reaction from GBPUSD on mixed data as recovery fails to follow through. | GBPUSD | 1.2182 | 1.2154 |
| US | 13 March 2023 | EVENT | SVB, 16th largest bank in the US with $209bln in assets (as of Dec 31, 2022) collapsed. Trsry Sec Yellen: No bailout for SVB but hinted something to shore up depositor confidence. | Concerns around deposit outflows, and what about EU and JP banks that have also had low rates. | Saw yields and rate hike expectations ↓ sharply with USD. 2 year yields touched lows of 3.94% | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.63 4.47% | 103.59 3.98% |
| India | 13 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Inflation YoY 6.44% last 6.52% MoM 0.17% last 0.46% | Still > RBI’s target of 4+/-2% medium term target as well as expectations, boosting chance of another rate hike in Apr. | INR weakens on weak risk sentiment from SVB + $ recovered some lost ground. | USDINR | 81.9100 | 82.4100 |
| Russia | 10 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Inflation rate YoY 11% last 11.8% MoM 0.5% last 0.8% | ↓ slightly below mkt expectations. Food inflation in particular ↓. | RUB weakens and USDRUB closed higher for the day. | USDRUB | 75.8400 | 76.1700 |
| US | 10 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Non Farm Payrolls 311K last 504K Feb Unemp rate at 3.6% last 3.4% Feb Avge Hrly Earnings YoY 4.6% last 4.4% | Mixed report. While > exptd, mkt is beginning to focus on SVB collapse and factoring in lesser quantum of hikes: FDIC reports $620bln of unrealized losses. | Mainly driven by SVB drama, USD yields ↓ with 2 yr touching lows of 4.57% taking USD with it. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 105.12 4.87% | 104.57 4.59% |
| India | 10 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Industrial Prodn YoY 5.2% last 4.7% Jan Manufacturing Prodn YoY 3.7% last 3.1% | All > exptd. | INR strengthens for the day but narrow ranges. | USDINR | 82.0000 | 81.9100 |
| UK | 10 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan GDP MoM 0.3% last -0.5%, YoY 0% Jan Industrial Prodn MoM -0.3% last 0.3%, YoY -4.3% | GDP > exptd, with some backtracking from recession idea. | Together with data, GBP benefits from USD ↓ on SVB news. | GBPUSD | 1.9198 | 1.2029 |
| Japan | 10 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | BOJ keeps rates and policy unchanged – Rate at -0.1% and 10 year JGB target at 0%, band at 0.5% BOJ Statement: Economy exptd to recover as impact of pandemic, supply constrains fade. Wil keep balance of commercial paper around JPY 2 trln. BOJ Kuroda: Wont hesitate to ease monetary policy further if necessary. +ve effects of easing far exceeded side effects. | Kuroda’s last meeting maintains dovish stance, and Ueda was approved. | All as exptd, no big moves from this as mkt was expecting NFP. JPY strengthened for the day, while JP yields ↓ considerably. USD begins slide on SVB issue. | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 136.12 0.501% | 135.06 0.406% |
| China | 09 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb CPI YoY 1% last 2.1% MoM -0.5% last 0.8% | Slowest annual CPI in a year and < exptd. While this can lead to rate cuts, but govt at annual NPC set growth target of 5% which is lower end of expectations. | CNY weakened for the day. | USDCNY | 6.9491 | 6.9625 |
| Japan | 08 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Final QoQ 0%, last -0.3% | Continues to be flat despite fiscal and monetary stimulus. All eyes on BOJ meeting. | JPY weakens and USDJPY closes higher for the day but within narrow range. | USDJPY | 137.1300 | 137.2900 |
| US | 08 March 2023 | TALK CENTRAL BANK | Fed Powell: Not made any decn about March meeting, its data-dependant. Costs of not getting inflation down will be extremely high. Aware of lags of monetary policy effects. Fed Beige book: US economic activity increased slightly from Jan – late Feb. Businesses reported moderation in infaltion. | Powell offers no major surprise, backtracked a bit from the more hawkish earlier. Mkts awaiting non farm payrolls. | range bound pre- NFP | USD index | 105.6700 | 105.6500 |
| UK | 08 March 2023 | TALK | BOE Dhingra: Overtightening poses a material risk at this point. Prudent strategy to hold policy steady. | Sharp contrast to peers like Mann who called for more hikes. Dissented last 2 MPC meetings voting to keep rates on hold. | range bound pre- NFP with slight $ driven uptick in GBPUSD. | GBPUSD | 1.1824 | 1.1843 |
| Euro | 07 March 2023 | TALK | ECB Knot: ECB can be exptd to keep raising rates for quite sometime after March. | USD driven moves on hawkish Powell impacts EURUSD to lows of 1.0546 | EURUSD | 1.0678 | 1.0549 | |
| UK | 07 March 2023 | TALK | BOE Mann: If recent hawkishness from Fed and ECB is not priced in, GBP could trade still lower. Terminal Rate is still beyond the forecast horizon. | case for GBPUSD ↓ | Mann + Hawkish Powell impacts GBPUSD ↓ to lows of 1.1821 | GBPUSD | 1.2017 | 1.1824 |
| US | 07 March 2023 | TALK | Fed Powell: If totality of data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, Fed is prepared to hike faster than previously anticipated. Core inflation has not come down as fast as we hoped. | More hawkish than exptd. | 2 year yields > 5% and broad ↑ in USD across the board. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.29 4.89% | 105.61 5.01% |
| China | 07 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan-Feb YoY Exports -6.8% last -9.9% Imports -10.2% exptd -7.5% Trade Balance $116.8bln, last $78 bln | Weak data, Exports to the US, Europe, and Japan ↓ while shipments to SEA ↑. Mkts did not anticipate slower pace of recovery. | CNY weakens for the day with USDCNY also supported by USD strength on Powell. | USDCNY | 6.9290 | 6.9600 |
| Australia | 07 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA ↑ cash rate by 25 bps to 3.5% as exptd. RBA Statement: Monthly CPI suggests inflation has peaked, board seeking to return inflation to 2-3% range. Lower risk of wage price spiral. RBA Lowe: Monetary policy now in restrictive territory, a pause could come in April. | Tone of statement seen as more dovish than Feb statement. Indication it is not precommitting to Apr hike. | AUDUSD ↓ below 0.6600 briefly after the announcement to lows of 0.6581. | AUDUSD AU 10 year yields. | 0.6727 3.76% | 0.6581 3.66% |
| Euro | 06 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Jan Retail Sales YoY -2.3% last -2.8% MoM 0.3% last -1.7% ECB Lagarde: EZ Inflation will stay high in near term so 50 bp rate hike is increasingly certain. | Hawkish comments | EURUSD a bit higher for the day on hawkish commentaries, highs of 1.0694 | EURUSD | 1.0623 | 1.0678 |
| US | 06 March 2023 | TALK | Fed Daly: If inflation and labour market hotter than exptd, interest rates will need to go higher and stay there for longer. | Continued higher for longer hawkish talk. | Lack of big direction at the moment in this NFP/ Powell speech week, narrow ranges. | USD Index | 105.6700 | 105.6500 |
| US | 03 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb ISM Non Manufacturing PMI 55.1 last 55.2 Feb Final S&P Services PMI 50.6 last 46.8 Comp PMI 50.1 last 46.8 Fed Waller: Inflation not easing as exptd, open to increasing rates if price pressures don’t reduce. | ISM just a tick lower than last but > exptd, signalling economy is strong. | Broad USD pullback for the day | USD Index | 104.9300 | 104.5200 |
| UK | 03 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Services PMI Final 53.5 last 48.7 Feb Comp PMI Final 53.1 last 48.5 | Business activity and incoming new work both expanding for 1st time since Aug 2022. | GBPUSD breaches 1.2 level to highs of 1.2048 amid broad USD pullback for the day. | GBPUSD | 1.1943 | 1.2042 |
| Euro | 03 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Feb Services PMI Final 52.7 last 50.8 Feb Comp PMI Final 52 last 50.3 Jan PPI YoY 15% last 24.5% ECB Muller: It is probably not the final hike in March, rates will remain high for a while. | Growth accelerating to 8 month highs as renewed stability in mfg prodn accompanied by stronger improvement in services output. Continued hawkish rhetoric. | EURUSD touched highs of 1.0638 amid broad USD pullback for the day. | EURUSD | 1.0596 | 1.0633 |
| Russia | 03 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Services PMI 53.1 last 48.7 Feb Comp PMI 53.1 last 49.7 | Both turns +ve, linked to strong client demand amid uncertainty. | Strengthening of RUB together with USD weakness for the day. | USDRUB | 75.5000 | 74.4000 |
| India | 03 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Services PMI 59.4 last 57.2 Feb Comp PMI 59 last 57.5 | Broad USD’s pullback puts on one of the best weekly performance for INR. | USDINR | 82.3300 | 81.6600 | |
| China | 03 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Services PMI 55 last 52.9 Feb Comp PMI 54.2 last 51.1 | Services – steepest ↑ since last Aug as removing COVID restrictions revived demand. | Mild strengthening in CNY. | USDCNY | 6.9117 | 6.9043 |
| Japan | 03 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Jan Unemp rate 2.4% last 2.5% Feb Tokyo Core CPI YoY 3.3% last 4.3% Feb Services PMI Final 54 last 52.3 Feb Comp PMI Final 51.1 last 50.7 Fin Min Suzuki: Govt will accelerate implementation of measures adopted by extra budget to cope with energy and food price hikes. | Tokyo inflation data exceeded BOJ target for 9th month but core decelerated from 42 yr highs. Softer risk tone broadly, more dovish $ talk and US/JP long term rate differential all impacting USDJPY. | USDJPY for One of the largest weekly losses as US yields also retrieat from highs. | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 136.75 0.504% | 136.12 0.503% |
| Australia | 02 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Services PMI Final 50.7 last 48.6 Feb Comp PMI Final 50.6 last 48.5 | Services > exptd, | No related moves, all USD drive. | AUDUSD | 0.6759 | 0.6728 |
| US | 02 March 2023 | TALK | Fed Colins: More rate hikes needed to curb inflation. Fed Bostic: Could be in a position to pause by mid to late summer. Firmly in the 25 bp move camp. Wanted a 5-5.25% rate. | Dovish Bostic. | 10 year yields reached intraday highs of 4.09%, while 2Y yields rose to levels last seen in 2007. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.38 4.87% | 105.02 4.89% |
| UK | 02 March 2023 | TALK | BOE Pill: Current momentum in economic activity may be stronger than exptd. | GBPUSD driven by rate expectations + USD. | GBPUSD continues downtrend on Bailey’s comments as well. | GBPUSD | 1.2028 | 1.0596 |
| Euro | 02 March 2023 | ECONDATA CENTRALBANK | Jan Unemp 6.7% as last. Feb Flash CPI YoY 8.5% last 8.6%; MoM 0.8% last -0.2% Feb Core CPI YoY 5.6% last 5.3% ECB Accounts of Feb meeting: Members agreed further ↑ in rates required for policy to enter restrictive territory. Agreed no signs of wage price spiral. Mkts paying more attention to core inflation than to headline inflation. | Inflation not a big surprise, but core inflation > exptd and this rise comes from services. Tight labour mkt ↑ wage hike possibility in coming months. Stress the ECB’s clear intention to continue hiking rates. | EURUSD ↓ broadly on Inflation data. | EURUSD | 1.0665 | 1.0596 |
| Japan | 02 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Feb Consumer Confidence 31.1 last 31 Jan Unemp rate 2.4% last 2.5% BOJ Takata: Inflation higher due to rising raw material costs, but Japan not yet experienced sustained price increases accompanied by wage increases. | Dovish talk. | 10 year yields continue to breach 0.5% range, while USDJPY breaches 137 level to highs of 137.10 | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 136.13 0.50% | 136.75 0.50% |
| UK | 01 March 2023 | TALK | BOE Bailey: Would caution against implying we are done ↑ rates, or would need to do more. Some further ↑ might be appropriate but nothing decided. Firm determination to achieve 2% inflation target. Monetary policy cannot alleviate shock to our national real income. | Less hawkish, in contrast to peers at Fed and ECB. | Gilts underperformed with GBPUSD. | UK 2 year yields GBPUSD | 3.68% 1.2019 | 3.67% 1.2028 |
| US | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.7 last 47.4 Feb S&P Manufacturing PMI Final 47.3 last 46.9 Fed Kashkari: Wage growth too high to be consistent with 2% inflation. Fed Bolstic: Policy rate needs to remain at 5-5.25% well into 2024. | ISM in contraction but most interest in prices component which rose sharply. Hawkish remarks | US 10 year yields rose > 4% to highs of 1.01% for 1st time since Nov last year. While yields jumped, USD index closed lower. | USD index US 10 year yields | 105.04 3.92% | 104.48 3.99% |
| Euro | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Manufacturing PMI Final 48.5 last 48.8 | At 2 month lows. | EURUSD boosted more by > exptd German inflation data. | EURUSD | 1.0572 | 1.0665 |
| Russia | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Global Manufacturing PMI 53.6 last 52.6 Jan Unemp 3.6% last 3.7% Dec Real Wage growth 0.6% last 0.3% Jan Retail Sales YoY -6.6% last -10.5% Jan GDP YoY -3.2% last -4.2% | Unemp rate < exptd. At record low - evidence of labour shortage since Putin's partial military mobilization. | RUB weakens for the day. | USDRUB | 75.0500 | 75.2500 |
| India | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Global Manufacturing PMI 55.3 last 55.4 | Boost in CNY had an impact on Asian Ccys | INR ↑ as USDINR touched lows of 82.37 (lowest since 10 Feb). | USDINR | 82.5600 | 82.4100 |
| China | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb NBS Manufacturing PMI 52.6 last 50.1 Non Manufacturing PMI 56.3 last 54.4 Feb Caxin Manufacturing PMI 51.6 last 49.2 | Factory activity grew at fastest pace since Apr 2012. Much of rebound due to infrastructure spending, which is supportive for commodity ccys as well. Recovery supports the reopening story. Supported also by Moody’s that raised forecast for China’s GDP to 5% for 2023/24 from 4% | CNY strengthens broadly, and this helped AUDUSD higher as well. | USDCNY AUDUSD | 6.9273 0.6728 | 6.8651 0.6757 |
| Japan | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Feb Manufacturing PMI Final 47.7 last 48.9 BOJ member Nakagawa: Easy monetary policy important for the time being. Aiming for +ve economic cycle accompanied by higher wages. | Dovish BOJ (Ueda and Uchida also stressed need for loosers policy) and weaker PMI data (shrinks most in 2.5 yrs). | Undermines JPY, elevated USD yields also adds to USDJPY bulls. | USDJPY | 136.1100 | 136.1300 |
| Australia | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth rate QoQ 0.5% last 0.7% Jan CPI YoY 7.4% last 8.4% | Softer data, but neither changing the story on RBA needing to hike rates. Rate hikes begin to bite. | Crushes AUDUSD to lows breaching 0.6700 level to 0.6695. | AUDUSD | 0.6728 | 0.6757 |
| India | 28 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth rate YoY 4.4% last 6.3% | < exptd | INR remains supported by hawkish RBI. | USDINR | 82.6400 | 82.6200 |
| US | 28 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb CB Consumer Confidence 102.9 last 106 | Unexpected decline, 2nd consecutive ↓. Reflects more pessimistic views on jobs, incomes and business conditions in next 6 months. | The release took its toll on USD, that touched lows of 104.41 | USD index | 104.6300 | 104.8600 |
| Australia | 28 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Retail Sales MoM Prelim 1.9% last -0.4% Q4 Current Account A$1.4bln, last A$0.8 bln Jan CPI YoY 7.4% last 8.4% Q4 GDP YoY 2.7%, last 5.9%; QoQ 0.5% last 0.7% | Rebound in retail sales, suggesting households yet to feel the pinch of rising rates. Domestic demand retains some momentum. Economy grew more than any other advanced economies. | Risk appetite not high enough to impact on AUDUSD, closed lower for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6731 | 0.6726 |
| US | 27 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Jefferson: Possible for inflation to ↓ without an unnecessary decline in job market. Important to get back to 2% inflation to allow sustained economic gains. | $ index stays under modest bearish pressure as USD index closed lower for the day. | USD index | 105.2600 | 104.5400 | |
| Japan | 27 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Retail Sales YoY 6.3% last 3.8%, MoM 1.9% Jan Industrial Prodn YoY Prelim -3.1% last -0.8% Jan Industrial Prodn MoM Prelim -4.6% last -0.3% | This in addition to Ueda’s continued comments. | Flucuations in USDJPY between narrow ranges though staying above 136.00 level. | USDJPY | 136.3900 | 136.1200 |
| UK | 27 February 2023 | EVENT | Windsor Framework: PM Rishi signed a new trade deal with EU on NI protocol. | It includes safeguarding trade flows within UK, protecting NI’s place in UK and giving the region’s assembly say over new EU rules. | GBPUSD strengthens on the deal to highs of 1.2066, also due to USD consolidating gains and falling from highs. | GBPUSD | 1.1950 | 1.2065 |
| US | 24 February 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Jan PCE Core price index MoM 0.6% last 0.4% Jan Personal spending MoM 1.8% last -0.1% Fed Bullard: Calling for 50 bps hike, to move quickly and re-establish credibility now. Fed Collins: Further rate increases to reach sufficiently restrictive level, holding there for perhaps extended time. | Fed’s preferred measure of inflation > exptd, increasing urgency for Fed to do more tightening over coming months. PCE deflator highest since July 2022. | ↑ in rate hike expectations, USD, and spike in short term Yields as exptd. 2 yr yields at 3 month highs. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.55 4.70% | 105.21 4.82% |
| Japan | 24 February 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Jan Inflation rate YoY 4.3% last 4% Core Inflation rate YoY 4.2% last 4% BOJ Gov Nominee Ueda: Current policy appropriate to achieve 2% inflation target. Inflation backed by higher import prices and not domestic demand and labour cost index, both of which are weak. Weak JPY good for exports, inbound tourism and some service sectors. If Price target is met, rate of bond purchases will slow. | Refrained from discussing specifics of YCC for now. Disappointingly, sounded very similar to Kuroda. | USDJPY showed good volatility over the talk, but eventually JPY lost out to USD that spiked for the day (see above). | USDJPY | 134.6800 | 136.4600 |
| US | 23 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 2.7% last 3.2% Q4 PCE QoQ 2nd Est 3.7% lsat 4.3% | < previous estimate, sign rate hikes are having more of an impact than initially thought. Inflation however is running hotter than expected. | $ continues its 3rd successive ↑ for the day. | $ Index | 104.4900 | 104.5900 |
| Euro | 23 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan CPI YoY Final 8.6% last 9.2% MoM final -0.2% last -0.4% | Range bound EURUSD. | EURUSD | 1.0603 | 1.0577 | |
| UK | 23 February 2023 | TALK | BOE Mann: Faling to do enough on rates now risks the worst of both worlds: higher inflation and lower activity. More tightening is needed, and pivot not imminent. | Continued hawkish tone. | USD strength on geopolitics (China-Rusia) and FOMC + hawkish talk pulls down GBPUSD. | GBPUSD | 1.2045 | 1.1991 |
| Russia | 22 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Industrial Prodn YoY -2.4% last -4.3% Jan PPI YoY -4.6% last -3.3% MoM -0.9% last -0.8% | 10th consecutive ↓ in Industrial Prodn, impact of labour shortages due to military mobilizations and Western sanctions. Add China’s Wang Yi: China ready to deepen relations with Russia. | RUB weakens further for the day. | USDRUB | 74.9300 | 75.4300 |
| India | 22 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBI Minutes: Increasing degree of concern that inflation will move > 6%. Retail inflation ↑ unexpectedly, which prompted consideration of further rate hikes. | Potential for future rate hikes strengthened. | INR↑ on the minutes. | USDINR | 82.8200 | 82.8100 |
| US | 22 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK TALK | FOMC Minutes from Jan 31-Feb1 meeting: Nearly all favoured a scale down in pace of rate hikes. Curbing high inflation would be a key factor. Continued job mkt will contribute to upward pressure on inflation. Fed Bullard: more aggressive hikes would give Fed better chance to tame inflation. Fed Williams: Committed to getting back to 2% in next few years. Price stability a fundamental need. | Largely hawkish mins, Mkts pricing higher-for-longer rates, minutes within expectations. | No reason to move even higher but $ generally rises supported by yields. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.12 4.72% | 104.58 4.69% |
| Australia | 22 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 Wage Price Index YoY 3.3% last 3.2% QoQ 0.8% last 1.1% | Vindicates RBA’s hawkish stance. Mkt awaits FOMC mins. | $ driven moves + RBNZ’s slowing pace of tightening: AUDUSD ↓ for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6850 | 0.6801 |
| US | 21 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Flash PMI Manufacturing 47.8, last 46.9 Services 50.5 last 46.8 Composite 50.2 last 46.8 | All > exptd. Resumption of uptrend in the $. | Yields and USD stronger. | USD index US 10 year yields | 103.91 3.84% | 104.17 3.95% |
| UK | 21 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Flash PMI Manufacturing 49.2, last 47 Services 53.3 last 48.7 Composite 53 last 48.5 | Upbeat > exptd data. That said, current hiking cycle coming to an end as a headwind to ccy. | Expectedly, GBPUSD ↑ to highs of 1.2147 from below 1.2 level. | GBPUSD | 1.2034 | 1.2119 |
| Euro | 21 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Flash PMI Manufacturing 48.5, last 48.8 Services 53 last 50.8 Composite 52.3 last 50.3 | Short term forecasts are EUR -ve and is seen in the currency trends. | EURUSD continues < 1.0700 prior and after the data. | EURUSD | 1.0684 | 1.0643 |
| Japan | 21 February 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Feb Flash PMI Manufacturing 47.4, last 48.9 Services 53.6 last 52.3 Composite 50.7 last 50.7 BOJ Kuroda: Wage growth likely to accelerate as companies ↑ pay to compensate for inflation and cope with intensifying labour shortage/ | Services at 8 mnth high – 6th successive month of expansion and fastest since June 2022. But manufacturing – 4th consecutive contraction month, steepest since Aug 2020. Overall, mixed data and hawkish talk. | Struggles to justify hawkish comments and USDJPY touched highs of 135.22. | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 134.17 0.501% | 134.99 0.505% |
| Australia | 21 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA Mins of Feb 7 meeting: Considered 25bp and 50bp hike, opting for 25 bp hike. No consideration of pausing. | More hawkish than exptd, need for additional hikes (plural). | AUDUSD touched highs of 0.6919 for the day but closed lower. | AUDUSD | 0.6905 | 0.6851 |
| Australia | 20 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Flash PMI Manufacturing 50.1, last 50 Services 49.2 last 48.6 Composite 49.2 last 48.5 | Shows further signs of turnaround in feb. | Little change in AUDUSD, tight ranges though closed higher. | AUDUSD | 0.6877 | 0.6906 |
| Russia | 20 February 2023 | ECONDATA | 2022 Ful year GDP Growth -2.1% last 5.6% | Mainly on western sanctions, but much softer contraction than exptd. | RUB weakens for the day. | USDRUB | 73.7500 | 75.0000 |
| Euro | 20 February 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Feb Flash Consumer Confidence -19 last -20.7 ECB Rehn: Appropriate to raise rates beyond March and reach terminal rate this summer. | Improves to highest in a year – sign of hope the region can dodge recession this yr. Outlook brightening also due to slowing inflation. | President’s day in the US, so vols are light and ranges tight. | EURUSD | 1.0685 | 1.0684 |
| China | 20 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | Loan Prime rate 1Y at 3.65%, 5Y at 4.3% both unchanged. | Rates unchanged for 6th consecutive month, higher rates in other major economices leaves little room for easing. PBoC keen to maintain sufficient liquidity after end to zero-COVID policy. | Muted reaction from CNY and related asset classes, CNY closed slightly stronger for the day. | USDCNY | 6.8656 | 6.8536 |
| US | 17 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Barkin: Like the 25 bp path as I believe it gives flexibility to respond to the economy. I think its what best balances the uncertainty in the economy. Fmr Tresaury Sec Summers: Fed has been trying to put breaks on and does not look like they are working. | Less hawkish talk, advocating the 25 bp path. Overall mixed. | Presidents day holiday, limited reactions | USD Index | 104.2000 | 103.8600 |
| UK | 17 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Retail Sales MoM 0.5% last -1.2% YoY -5.1% last -6.1% | Given the seasonal adjustment in Nov/Dec/Jan period, will have to wait to get the full macro picture. | UK 2 year yields | 3.80% | 3.78% | |
| UK | 16 February 2023 | TALK | BOE Pill: There is a risk of ‘overtightening’ if pace over past few months is maintained. Labour mkt has shown signs of loosening. | A suggestion upward pressure on inflation from pay rises may be easing, clearest sign yet that BOE might settle for 25 bps or pause. | Weakens the GBPUSD and breaches the 1.2 level to lows of 1.1965 | GBPUSD | 1.2023 | 1.9913 |
| US | 16 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Bullard@: Continued rate increases would ‘lock in’ slowing inflation. Fed Mester: Demand side of economy not softening as exptd, expecting growth to slow appreciably this year. Doubt there will be a need to cut rates this year. Fed will need to go > 5% and stay there for a while. | Nothing new | $ in consolidation mode after the spike up yesterday. No big moves on the comments | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.88 4.63% | 103.85 4.64% |
| Australia | 16 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Unemp 3.7% last 3.5% Jan Employment change -11.5K, last -19.9K Participation rate 66.5% last 66.6% | Disapointing, < exptd as unemp at 8 month highs. However, not cooling enough to justify RBA pause. | AUDUSD ↓ on the release and breached 0.6900 to lows of 0.6840 for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6902 | 0.6878 |
| Japan | 15 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Exports YoY 3.5% last 11.5% Imports 17.8% last 20.7% Trade Balance JPY -3.49trln, last -1.45 trln | Record trade balance/deficit > JPY 3 trln for first time, as one off factors including Lunar NY dragged on exports. Weaker JPY and higher oil key drivers to trade deficit. | USDJPY ↑ also on $ strength on strong data. | USDJPY | 133.1 | 134.1400 |
| US | 15 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Retail Sales MoM 3%, last -1.1%, exptd 1.8% YoY at 6.4% last 5.9% Jan Industrial Prodn YoY 0.8% last 1.1% MoM 0% last -1% | > exptd, another sign of likely re-acceleration in cyclical growth. | USD ↑ to fresh highs of 104.11 (levels last seen 6th Jan) | USD index US 10 year yields | 103.21 3.75% | 103.92 3.80% |
| Euro | 15 February 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Dec Industrial Prodn MoM -1.1% last 1.4% Dec Trade Balance -EUR8.8bln ECB Lagarde: Intend to ↑ rates by 50 bp in March. Wages are growing faster, will take necessary steps to tackle inflation. Future pace of APP wind down yet to be determined. | Data missed expectations, with familiar tone by Lagarde. | EURUSD bottoms out at lows of 1.0660 | EURUSD | 1.0736 | 1.0686 |
| UK | 15 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan CPI YoY 10.1% last 10.5% exptd 10.3% MoM -0.6% last 0.4% | Falling infaltion eases pressure on BOE. Signals inflation has peaked. | GBP ↓ across the board in one of the bgigest drops this month. Lows breaching 1.2000 level to 1.9894 | GBPUSD | 1.2170 | 1.2023 |
| China | 15 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | PBoC keeps 1 year MLF (medium term lending facility) rate unchanged at 2.75% | CNY comes under pressure, also from strong US CPI/hawkish Fed. | USDCNY | 6.8250 | 6.8505 | |
| Australia | 15 February 2023 | TALK | RBA Lowe: Inflation too high, needs to come down. Risk we have not yet done enough on interest rates. | RBA’s recent hawkish turn saw mkts price in peak of 4.2% | Not as hawkish as Fed so AUDUSD stays below 0.7000. | AUDUSD | 0.6985 | 0.6901 |
| US | 14 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Logan: Must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated. Fed Williams and Harker: Work to control inflation not yet done. | Continued hawkish tone. | Yields and USD stronger after a lot of volatility following release. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.21 4.52% | 103.23 4.61% |
| US | 14 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan CPI YoY 6.4% last 6.5%, expd 6.2% MoM at 0.5% | > exptd. More evidence of higher for longer rates. | Yields and USD stronger after a lot of volatility following release. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.21 4.52% | 103.23 4.61% |
| Euro | 14 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Euro Area Q4 GDP QoQ 2nd Est 0.1% last 0.3% | EC had upwardly revised growth | Against GBP, EUR closes lower. | EURGBP | 0.8831 | 0.8818 |
| UK | 14 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Unemp rate 3.7% as last and exptd Jan Claimant Count change -12.9K last -3.2K | Strong data. | Bullish momentum for GBPUSD, touched highs of 1.2269. | GBPUSD | 1.2135 | 1.2170 |
| Japan | 14 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Industrial Prodn YoY Final -2.4% last -0.9% Kazuo Ueda to be next BOJ Gov. | volatility in JPY on the back of Gov appointment. | volatility in JPY on the back of Gov appointment. | USDJPY | 132.36 | 133.11 |
| Japan | 13 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP QoQ Prelim 0.2% last -0.3% | $ driven moves in anticipation of US CPI and BOJ Gov nomination. | USDJPY | 131.11 | 132.36 | |
| India | 13 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan CPI YoY 6.52% last 5.72%, MoM 0.46% last -0.45% | Highest in 3 months and > exptd. | 10 year yields reached Feb highs (so far) of 7.387% but closed lower. | IN 10 year benchmark yield | 7.38% | 7.36% |
| Japan | 10 February 2023 | TALK | Fin Min Suzuki: Pulling economy out of deflation and achieving stable growth remain main challenge. BOJ Amamiya: Don’t see need to make YCC more flexible. | For now, BOJ continues to see 2% inflation target. Reports also Kazuo Ueda to be next BOJ Gov – speculations high inflation would lead to a more hawkish stance. | Big ↓ in USDJPY following news of Kazuo as next BOJ Gov. Breached 130 level to lows of 129.79 | USDJPY | 131.5300 | 131.4100 |
| India | 10 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Industrial Prodn YoY 4.3% last 7.3% Dec Manufacturing Prodn YoY 2.6% last 6.4% | ↑ in Crude oil + Russia’s plan to ↓ oil prodn weighs on INR. Low vols + attractive carry is a good INR story. | INR ends little changed with $, but worst trading week in 2 months. | USDINR 1 year ATM Vols for USDINR | 82.48 6% | 82.49 6% |
| Russia | 10 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | CBR holds rates at 7.5% – If pro inflation risks intensify, will consider necessity of further hikes. Jan CPI YoY 11.8% last 11.9%, MoM 0.8% as last. | 3rd consecutive hold, in line with forecasts. Gives hawkish signals. Budget deficit of $25bln following oil price cap is in focus. | RUB at lowest level since Apr 2022. Breached 74 level to highs of 74.12 | USDRUB | 73.0300 | 73.0800 |
| UK | 10 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec GDP MoM -0.5% last +0.1%, YoY -0.1% last 0.6% Q4 GDP Growth rate QoQ Prel at 0%, last -0.2% Dec Industrial Prodn YoY -4% last -4.3% | UK avoided technical recession by a whisker. Dec contraction blamed on strikes and wierdly, lack of football games due to world cup. | GBPUSD cuts its 3 day ↑ to touch lows of 1.2046. | GBPUSD | 1.2121 | 1.2046 |
| China | 10 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Inflation rate YoY 2.1% last 1.8%, MoM 0.8% last 0% Jan PPI YoY -0.8% | CPI boosted by seasonal New year spending. Headwinds in economy – ailing property sector, weakening external demand for exports. Factory gate prices fell > exptd. | CNY weakens as factory gate prices acts as headwinds for recovery. | USDCNY | 6.7777 | 6.8065 |
| Australia | 10 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA Statement on Monetary Policy: Revised up forecasts for core inflation, wages growth. | Hawkish statement, suggesting it is thinking of at least 2 more hikes this yr. | Does little for AUDUSD. | AUDUSD | ||
| UK | 09 February 2023 | TALK | BOE MPC Report Hearings: Andrew Bailey, Pill and Haskel: Expect inflation to come down rapidly this yr. | Provided broad support to the GBP. | GBPUSD closed higher on $ related moves. | GBPUSD | 1.2069 | 1.2121 |
| US | 09 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Barkin: Effects of tightening has been substantial but macroeconomic data put back the risk of recession. | Overall lack of direction for USD despite the continued hawkish rhetoric. | $ benefits slightly for the day from higher bond yields and comments but closed lower. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.43 4.42% | 103.22 4.48% |
| Russia | 08 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Unemp rate at 3.7% as last. Dec Retail Sales YoY -10.5% last -7.9% Nov Real wage growth YoY 0.3% last 0.4% | Political moves as Russian embassy says British fighter jets sent to Ukraine could have military and political ramifications. | RUB close to 10 month lows. USDRUB touched highs of 73.52 | USDRUB | 71.2500 | 72.4700 |
| US | 08 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Williams: Fed will watch the data to determine path of rates, still have work to do on rates. Fed Cook: Strongly committed to price stability and employment mandates of Fed, will need restrictive monetary policy for sometime. Fed Waller: Fed’s rapid rate hikes are paying off, but might be a long fight to reach 2% target. | All continued hawkish rhetoric. | $ index slightly higher, posting little gains to highs of 103.52 | USD index | 103.2600 | 103.4000 |
| India | 08 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBI ↑ rates by 25 bps to 6.5% as exptd. RBI Das: While inflation exptd to moderate in FY24, will rule above 4% target. | INR strengthens, aided by weaker $. | USDINR | 82.7900 | 82.6300 | |
| Euro | 07 February 2023 | TALK | ECB Schnabel: ECB intends to ↑ rates by 50 bps in March, Monetary policy not having impact on inflation as hoped. . ECB Nagel: Rate cuts not on agenda in foreseeable future, further significant rate hikes are needed. | Hawkish comments. | EURUSD struggled to capitalize on the hawkish comments, broke 1.07 level to lows of 1.0669 before rebounding back. | EURUSD | 1.0725 | 1.0723 |
| US | 07 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Powell: Further hikes may be needed if strong labour data persists. Acknowledging the progress on inflation, but would take time to bring it down. Fed Kashkari: Strong labour market report means Fed would need to ↑ rates. Fed Bostic: Jobs data raises possibility of higher peak rates, but base case is still for 2 more hikes. | Powell Speak had a dovish start but finished on a hawkish tone. Essentially reiterated last week’s comments but this gives risk sentiment a boost. | Following Powell, $ index moved lower to touch lows of 103.00. Yields were flat for the day though 2 year touched 4.38% | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.53 4.47% | 103.42 4.47% |
| Australia | 07 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA ↑ cash rate by 25 bps to 3.35% RBA Statement: Further ‘increases’ would be needed in the months ahead. | Omitted previous condition that policy was not on ‘pre set’ path. More hawkish than exptd. 9th straight month of ↑. Total of 325 bps of hikes since May 2022. | AUDUSD and AU yields (10 year) ↑ to touch highs of 0.6988 and 3.664% on the hawkish statements. | AUDUSD AU 10 year yields. | 0.6881 3.538% | 0.6957 3.649% |
| Euro | 06 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec retail Sales YoY -2.8% last -2.5%, MoM -2.7% | < exptd, together with German factory orders which also came in < exptd. | Poor data + USD ↑ on risk sentiment and China baloon concerns = EURUSD touched lows of 1.0709 | EURUSD | 1.0780 | 1.0725 |
| UK | 06 February 2023 | TALK | BOE Mann and Pill: Keep on hiking to neutralise inflation risks, pausing now risks ‘policy boogie’ (Mann). Brexit was a unique trade shock contributing to stubborn inflation. | Mann is consistently the most hawkish member. During MPC there was indication there were signals of pausing. | GBPUSD reversed recent sell offs but still closed lower as USD generally up on risk sentiment and China concerns. | GBPUSD | 1.2029 | 1.2017 |
| Australia | 06 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Retail SalesMoM Final -3.9%, last 1.7% | With China reopening and global factors, domestic data appears less relevant in major mkt moves. Mkts expecting RBA tomorrow. | AUDUSD ↓ also on $ driven moves. | AUDUSD | 0.6917 | 0.6817 |
| US | 03 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Non Farm payrolls 517K exptd 190K last 260K Dec Unemp 3.4% exptd 3.6% last 3.5% Dec Avge Hourly earnings MoM 0.3% last 0.4% exptd 0.3% Jan ISM Non Manufacturing PMI 55.2 last 49.2 | Unexpected rebound in service sector and strong jobs data – more hawkish trajectory for US rates. | $ rebounds sharply as $ index breaches 103.00 level. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 101.83 4.10% | 102.91 4.29% |
| UK | 03 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan PMI Final Services 48.7 last 49.9 Composite 48.5 last 49 | Rate of ↓ for overall business activity was the fastest since January 2021. ↓ again for 4th month running. | All moves defined by USD rebound on Non Farm for the day. | GBPUSD | 1.2223 | 1.2050 |
| Euro | 03 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan PMI Final Services 50.8 last 49.8 Composite 50.3 last 49.3 | Grows (> 50) for first time since June 2022. Though new orders ↓ it was at softest over this period. Broadly +ve and optimistic. | Moves were broadly $ driven due to NFP in the US. Hence EURUSD closed lower. | EURUSD | 1.0909 | 1.0792 |
| Russia | 03 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan PMI Services 48.7 last 45.9 Composite 49.7 last 48 | Services ↓ for 4th month running – another mnthly drop in new business, weak domestic and intl demand. | All moves defined by USD rebound on Non Farm for the day. | USDRUB | 70.0600 | 70.6400 |
| India | 03 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan PMI Services 57.2 last 58.5 Composite 57.5 last 59.4 | > long run avge of 53.5, favourable demand conditions and increases in new work. | All moves defined by USD rebound on Non Farm for the day. | USDINR | 82.0200 | 82.4300 |
| China | 03 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan PMI Services 52.9 last 48 Composite 51.1 last 48.3 | Services rebounds > exptd as demand ↑ on relaxing COVID restrictions + Lunar New year spending. Headwinds are high COVID cases and staff absences. | All moves defined by USD rebound on Non Farm for the day. | USDCNY | 6.7284 | 6.7728 |
| Euro | 02 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | ECB ↑ rates by 50 bps – refinancing rate to 3% and deposite rate to 2.5%, Intends another 50 bp hike in March. Asset purchase program (APP) portfolio to ↓ by EUR15bln/month on avge from Mar – Jun 2023. | Lagarde was ambigious on the path after March, leading to dovish speculation. Mkts go against hawkish communication. | Notable ↓ in EURUSD. | EURUSD | 1.0988 | 1.0909 |
| UK | 02 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | BOE ↑ rates by 50 bps to 4% on 7 (hike) – 2 (Unchanged) vote. Statement: Past ↑ in bank rate exptd to have impact on economy in coming qtrs. BOE Bailey: BOE forecasts suggests inflation will ↓ quite sharply. | Omission of word ‘forcefully’ while describing how bank tackles inflation. Decision in line with expectations. Below target inflation forecasts, more muted language on tightening. Laying groundwork for ending tightening cycle? Mkts saw the hawkish press release as dovish. | Initial reaction – GBPUSD ↑ breaching 1.24 level to highs of 1.2412 but retreats to close lower. Yields fell sharply. | GBPUSD UK 10 year yields | 1.2372 3.33% | 1.2223 2.98% |
| India | 01 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | Union Budget: Capex to ↑ 33% to INR 10 trln, Govt eyes fiscal deficit of 5.9% in 2023/24, 4.5% by 2025/26. Proposal to limit tax exemptions for insurance proceeds, Rebate limit for personal tax ↑ from 500K to 700K. INR300 bln for energy transition. | Biggest ever ↑ in capital spending. Overall -ve for insurance companies. Elections in over a year, so govt spending earlier than exptd. Fiscal responsibility broadly welcomed. | INR strengthened on budget to 81.79 (USDINR) but also tracked equities, so Adani sell off had an impact. Yields had a bigger drop. | USDINR IN 10 year yields | 81.8 7.41% | 81.67 7.27% |
| US | 01 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | Fed ↑ rates by 25 bps to 4.75% as widely expected. Fed Powell: +ve growth will continue but at subdued pace. Labour market very strong; disinflationary process in early stages. Likely to have to maintain restrictive stance for sometime. Rate cuts could take place this yr if inflation comes down much faster. | Powell famously used ‘disinflation’ 15 times in Q&A. Nod to slowing prices added to speculation of rate cuts this yr. | The USD ↓↓, celebrating dovish and relaxed remarks and risk-on sentiment. Rates softened. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.09 4.2% | 101.21 4.11% |
| UK | 01 February 2023 | EVENT | The Times: EU and UK have struck a customs deal that could pave the way for ending yrs of post-Brexit wrangling over Northern Ireland. | Should have been a +ve catalyst for GBPUSD but was not. | GBPUSD closed higher for the day but fails to fully develop on USD’s weakness. | GBPUSD | 1.2318 | 1.2372 |
| US | 01 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.4 last 48.4 exptd 48 | 3rd straight month of contraction. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.19 4.24% | 102.09 4.20% |
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| Euro | 01 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan CPI Flash YoY 8.5% last 9.2% exptd 9% Dec Unemp rate 6.6% same as last. | Softer than exptd, Largely result of ↓ energy prices and subsidies. | EURUSD | 1.0860 | 1.0988 | |
| Russia | 01 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Manufacturing PMI 52.6 last 53 | USDRUB | 69.0200 | 69.8800 | ||
| Australia | 01 February 2023 | TALK | RBA Kohler: RBA believes inflation peaked in Q4 2022. | Dovish bias | AUDUSD corrected the previous day’s rebound to touch lows of 0.7036 before closing higher at 0.7133 | AUDUSD | 0.7054 | 0.7133 |
| India | 01 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Manufacturing PMI 55.4 last 57.8 exptd 57.4 | Anxiety on Fed meeting, budget policies etc bears on the INR. | Risk averse theme generally – USDINR ↑ for the day. | USDINR | 81.8000 | 81.7100 |
| China | 01 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Final Manufacturing PMI 49.2 last 49, exptd 49.5 | Softer ↓ in output and new orders despite COVID reopening, still < 50 | Ranges have been narrow since this week is return from holidays. | USDCNY | 6.7540 | 6.7400 |
| Japan | 01 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Final Manufacturing PMI 48.9 as exptd and last. | Contracts (<50)for 3rd straight month, 1st time it has not fallen since Apr. Subdued global economic conditions held back demand in JP's mfg sector. | $JPY in exceptionally narrow range. | USDJPY | 130.0500 | 128.9000 |
| US | 31 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Consumer Confidence 107.1 last 109 | NO specific reaction to data but USD dips as mkts await Fed decision. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.19 4.24% | 102.09 4.20% |
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| Euro | 31 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth Rate Flash QoQ 0.1% last 0.3% Yoy 1.9% last 2.3% | Avoid contraction but economy still sluggish. Expectations for this week’s ECB remains firm at 50 bp. | Slight ↑ in EURUSD. | EURUSD | 1.0848 | 1.0860 |
| China | 31 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan NBS Manufacturing PMI 50.1 last 47 | Adding to optimism is China’s CDC saying current COVID wave infections is nearing an end, no rebound during New Year. | Risk on mode reflecting on AUDUSD and USDCNY | USDCNY AUDUSD | 6.7475 0.7055 | 6.7535 0.7054 |
| Australia | 31 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Retail Sales MoM Prelim -3.9% last 1.7% | Bad numbers, largest decline since Aug 2020. Consumption is 60% of AU’s GDP. | Cautious mood, expectedly AUDUSD ↓ to lows of 0.6984. | AUDUSD | 0.7055 | 0.7054 |
| Japan | 30 January 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Dec Unemp rate 2.5% as exptd and last Dec Industrial Prodn YoY Prel -2.8% last -0.9% Dec Retail Sales MoM 1.1% last -1.3% BOJ Kuroda: Uncertainty re Japan’s economy is extremely high. Important to support economy and create an environment where companies can raise wages. | Seperately, there is an urge for BOJ to make 2% inflation target a long term goal. This lead to knee jerk JPY strength. | FX markets broadly quiet awaiting Central banks. JPY is a bit strong. USDJPY between ranges of | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 129.75 0.47% | 130.32 0.48% |
| US | 27 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec PCE price Index YoY 5% last 5.5% Dec Core PCE Price Index MoM 0.3% last 0.2%; YoY 4.4% | YoY ↑ smallest since Oct 2021. Fed watches this closely. | USD broadly pulls up from multi day lows and yields closed higher for the day. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 101.71 4.18 | 101.92 4.20 |
| US | 26 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth Rate Adv 2.9% last 3.2% | > exptd, strong data backs a hawkish Fed. Attention turns to Fed next week. | $ index was up while EURUSD was down, GBPUSD was flat and closed slightly higher. | USD Index GBPUSD EURUSD | 101.57 1.2397 1.0912 | 101.84 1.2406 1.0888 |
| Australia | 25 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 Inflation Rate YoY 7.8%, last 7.3% QoQ 1.9% last 1.8% | All > expectations with no peak in sight – less chance of any RBA pause. | AUDUSD rallies hard after data, touches highs of 0.7122 | AUDUSD | 0.7045 | 0.7104 |
| US | 24 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Area Flash PMI Manufacturing 46.8, last 46.2 Services 46.6 last 44.7 Composite 46.6, last 45 | Continues to contract though at softer pace than Dec. | Continued weakness in the $ seen as it closed lower. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 101.98 4.232% | 101.91 4.212% |
| UK | 24 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Flash PMI Manufacturing 46.7, last 45.3 Services 48 last 49.9 Composite 47.8, last 49 | Improves but remains below 50. Industrial disputes, staff shortages, export losses, the rising cost of living, and higher interest rates all meant the rate of economic decline gathered pace again. | GBPUSD ↓ after the release, with 2 year yields. | GBPUSD UK 2 year yields | 1.2373 3.44%. | 1.2334 3.36% |
| Euro | 24 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Euro Area Flash PMI Manufacturing 48.8, last 47.8 Services 50.7 last 49.8 Composite 50.2 last 49.3 | Reaction is dependant on ECB than on the PMI data. | Sideways trading for the day, rangebound in EURUSD | EURUSD | 1.0868 | 1.0882 |
| Japan | 24 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Flash PMI Manufacturing 48.9, last 48.9 Services 52.4 last 51.1 Composite 50.8 last 49.7 | Mixed data + chatters PM’s plans to ease legal status of COVID to class 5 disease. | Downside pressure on USDJPY, breaches 130.00 level to ,lows of 129.72. Minor gains on JPY against firmer USD. | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 130.64 0.378% | 130.1 0.406% |
| Australia | 23 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Flash PMI Manufacturing 49.8, last 50.2 Services 48.3 last 47.3 Composite 48.2 last 47.5 | Softer PMIs, all < exptd. Mfg PMI drops to lowest since May 2020. | AUDUSD bulls take a breather despite weaker $. Remains>0.7000 | AUDUSD | 0.6966 | 0.7025 |
| Euro | 23 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Euro area Flash Consumer Confidence -20.9, exptd -20, last -22 | Improvement | Hawkish sentiment lifted EURUSD aided by ↓ nat gas prices since Dec. | EUR 2 yr swap rate EURUSD Brent Crude | 2.58% 1.0866 87.70 | 2.61% 1.0868 88.19 |
| Euro | 23 January 2023 | TALK | ECB Knot: ECB set to ↑ rates by 50 bps in both Feb and March, will continue to ↑ rate in the months after. ECB Rehn: there are grounds for significant increases. | Looks more likely for 2 more 50 bps hikes before slowing down. Joins Lagarde and hawkish minutes earlier in pushing down dovish speculation. | Hawkish sentiment lifted EURUSD aided by ↓ nat gas prices since Dec. | EUR 2 yr swap rate EURUSD Brent Crude | 2.58% 1.0866 87.70 | 2.61% 1.0868 88.19 |
| China | 20 January 2023 | CENTRALBANK | PBoC keeps rates unch – Loan prime rate 5Y at 4.3%, 1Y at 3.65% | at historic lows for 5th straight month. Mkts also looking at COVID hospitalizations that hit highest since pandemic began. Lunar new year means spread to rural areas. | CNY weakened for the day as USDCNY touched highs of 6.7929 – mkts closed for Lunar New year. | USDCNH | 6.7680 | 6.7810 |
| US | 20 January 2023 | TALK | Fed Williams: With inflation still high and continued supply demand imbalances, policy still has more work to do to bring down inflation to 2%. Fed Brainard: Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sometime. Fed Waller: Favours 25 bp hike in next meeting. | Idea of possible pivot continues to weigh on the $, contrasting with the hawkish talk,. | $ was mixed through out the day as $ index was between ranges of 102.55 and 101.93 | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.07 4.13% | 101.93 4.17% |
| UK | 20 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Retail Sales MoM -1.% exptd 0.5% last -0.5% YoY at -5.8% | Unexpectedly fell, Cut back on Christmas spending seen. | GBPUSD retreated after data, touched lows of 1.2335 for the day | GBPUSD UK 2 year yields | 1.2387 3.47% | 1.2396 3.47% |
| Japan | 19 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Inflation rate YoY 4% as exptd, last 3.8% | at 41 year high, much of the price growth from ↑ food prices, gas rates. Mkts expecting revisions to YCC under new BOJ Gov (Apr). | USDJPY touched highs of 128.88 but closed lower. | USDJPY | 128.8500 | 128.4000 |
| Euro | 19 January 2023 | CENTRALBANK | ECB Minutes: ‘Large number’ of members preferred 75 bp hike. Concerns of rate hikes < 75 bps will send wrong message to mkts. ECB Lagarde: Will stay course with rate hikes, not seeing inflation expectations unanchoring. Inflation too high, determined to bring it down to 2% in timely manner. 2023 will be better than feared, EU job market vibrant. | Minutes more hawkish than exptd. Speakers reaffirm need for 50 bp hike to continue for a while. Minutes also limits chance of downshift to 25bps. | EUR broadly gained ground against peers. | EURUSD EURGBP | 1.0794 0.8740 | 1.0831 0.8740 |
| Australia | 19 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Employment Change -14.6K exptd 22.5K last 58.2K Dec Unemp rate at 3.5% | A headwind for AUD. | Broad ↓ in AUDUSD on weak data + risk-off sentiment, lows of 0.6872 | AUDUSD | 0.6941 | 0.6908 |
| Japan | 18 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Exports YoY 11.5% exptd 11% last 20% Dec Imports YoY 20.6% exptd 21% last 30.3% | Exports grew at slowest rate in 2022. Extends trade deficits to 17 straight months. | Unrelated to data, $JPY corrected after spike on BOJ, and 10 year yields between ranges of 0.504% and 0.362% | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 128.05 0.504% | 128.85 0.426% |
| US | 18 January 2023 | TALK | Fed Harker: Fed needs to get rates > 5%, will let data dictate where rates peak. Reiterates support for 25 bp hikes, expecting rises a ‘few more times’ this year. Fed Bullard: Policy not yet in restrictive territory. Fed Mester: Fed needs to ‘keep going’. | Markets appear to shrug off the comments, with terminal rate expectations continuing to ↓. | $ reaction primarily based on retail sales numbers, ↓ for the day to lows of 101.52 | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.46 4.21% | 102.36 4.087% |
| US | 18 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Retail Sales MoM -1.1% exptd -0.8% last -1% YoY at 6% Dec Industrial Prodn MoM -0.7% exptd -0.1% last -0.6% | All < exptd. | $ reaction primarily based on retail sales numbers, ↓ for the day to lows of 101.52 | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.46 4.21% | 102.36 4.087% |
| Euro | 18 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec CPI YoY 9.2% as exptd, last 10.1% | Expectations of inflation peaked | EURUSD | 1.0787 | 1.0794 | |
| UK | 18 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec CPI YoY 10.5% as exptd, last 10.7% | Remains elevated but ↓ from last year plays into narrative inflation has peaked in the Western world. | GBPUSD rallies on the data to highs of 1.2435 | GBPUSD UK 2 year yields | 1.2284 3.46% | 1.2342 3.47% |
| Japan | 18 January 2023 | CENTRALBANK | BOJ Rate decn: Maintains key short term rate at -0.1% and 10 yr bond yields around 0%, keeps +/-0.5% range for 10 year yields. BOJ Kuroda: Do not see need to widen the oft-discussed bond yield cap, yields expected to normalize back below this level. | Defies mkt speculation of tweak to yield control range. Of note that BOJ has bought so much 10 JGBs, liquidity has dried up. | JPY feels the heat, and 10 year yields too ↓ sharply. USDJPY touched highs of 131.54. 10 year yields low at 0.362% | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 128.05 0.504% | 128.85 0.426% |
| UK | 17 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Claimant Count change 19.7K, exptd 16K last 16.1K Nov Unemp rate at 3.7% as last and exptd. | > exptd though it’s a lagging indicator. Adding a reason for another 50 bp hike. | lifts GBPUSD, continued upside momentum touches highs of 1.2300 key level. | GBPUSD | 1.2189 | 1.2284 |
| China | 17 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth Rate YoY 2.9% exptd 1.8% last 3.9% Dec Industrial Prodn YoY 1.3% exptd 0.2% last 2.2% Dec Retail Sales -1.8% exptd -8.6% last -5.9% Dec Unemp rate 5.5% | Growth > exptd, and outlook for 2023 is stronger due to relaxation of covid policies. | CNY weakened for the day. USDCNY touched highs of 6.7899 | USDCNY | 6.7402 | 6.7672 |
| UK | 16 January 2023 | TALK | BOE Bailey: UK labour shortage a major risk to central case for inflation falling. Likely to have -ve short term impact from COVID in China. | Minor slippage in GBPUSD | GBPUSD | 1.2214 | 1.2189 | |
| India | 16 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec WPI Inflation YoY 4.95% exptd 5.6% last 5.85% Dec Exports and Imports > last. Dec Balance of trade $-23.67bln. | WPI lowest since Feb 2021. Primarily due to ↓fuel rates and stability in food prices. | INR weakens as USDINR touches highs of 81.73 | USDINR | 81.2700 | 81.6000 |
| US | 13 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim 64.6, exptd 60.5, last 59.7 Inflation expectations 4%, last 4.4% | Inflation expectations lowest in nearly 2 yrs. | ↓ in the USD and front end yields. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.21 4.157% | 101.98 4.238% |
| Euro | 13 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Nov Industrial Prodn YoY 2%, exptd 0.5% last 3.4% MoM 1% | No related moves in the mkt. | EURUSD | 1.0852 | 1.0831 | |
| UK | 13 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Nov GDP YoY 0.2% exptd 0.3% last 1.1% Nov Industrial Prodn YoY -5.1% exptd -3% last -4.7% Nov Manufacturing Prodn YoY -5.9% exptd -4.8% last -5.7% | Growth < exptd, smallest since early 2021. Still an expansion. ING's key points: Lack of workers/inactivity rates, vulnerability to housing mkt correction, exposure to Europe's energy crisis. | GBPUSD fails to register any significant gains on the data but closed higher. | GBPUSD | 1.2206 | 1.2227 |
| China | 13 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec YoY Exports -9.9% exptd -10% last -8.9% Imports -7.5% exptd -9.7% last -10.6% Trade Balance $78 bln | Exports ↓ on global demand cooling, imports ↓ on COVID resurgance and property downturn. | $CNH extends decline more on $’s broad weakness. | USDCNY USDCNH | 6.7365 6.7239 | 6.7005 6.7048 |
| US | 12 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec CPI YoY 6.5% as exptd, last 7.1% Dec CPI MoM -0.1% as exptd, last 0.1% Core CPI MoM 0.3% as exptd, last 0.2% | YoY lowest since Oct 2021. Headed in the right direction and clearly peaked. Fed Harker after data said 25 bps will be appropriate going fwd. | Sparks a $ selloff. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.06 4.22% | 102.24 4.15% |
| China | 12 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec CPI YoY 1.8% as exptd, last 1.6% MoM 0% exptd -0.1% last -0.2% | Official target of around 3%, inflation unlikely to hit heights of other major economies on reopening. Allows for further loosening by PBoC | USDCNY USDCNH | 6.7672 6.7653 | 6.7360 6.7242 |
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| US | 12 January 2023 | TALK | Fed Larker: Expecting Fed to get rates just over 5%, then hold. Still worried about Long term effects of budget deficits. Likely to take couple of yrs to get inflation to 2%. Lower shelter costs take time to show in inflation data. | Particularly dovish | Moves $ index and 2 year yields lower for the day as can be seen. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.06 4.22% | 102.24 4.15% |
| India | 12 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Nov Industrial Prodn YoY 7.1% exptd 2.6% last -4% Nov Manufacturing Prodn 6.1% last -5.6% Dec CPI YoY 5.72% exptd 5.9% last 5.88% | Ind and Mfg production all >> exptd. | INR broadly strengthened as USDINR touches lows of 81.11. | USDINR | 81.6300 | 81.1700 |
| Japan | 11 January 2023 | EVENT | Report – BOJ will review side effects of easy policy next week. | Pevious roumours of change to policy validated by ‘tweak’ in YCC. This is more of the same. | USDJPY continues to be under pressure brushing to lows of 132.06 before closing higher. | USDJPY JP 10 year yields | 132.23 0.502% | 132.47 0.501% |
| Euro | 10 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Nov Unemp rate 6.5% as exptd and last | Pre-committed to 50 bp hike in next meeting. | No specific reaction to this as $ continues its ↓ as reflected in EURUSD. | EURUSD | 1.0639 | 1.0728 |
| Australia | 10 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Nov CPI YoY 7.3% as exptd, last 6.9% Nov Retail Sales MoM 1.4% exptd 0.4% last 0.6% | On retail sales, Black Friday appears to have given a boost. | AUDUSD ↑, touching highs of 0.6928 helped by data. | AUDUSD | 0.6910 | 0.6887 |
| UK | 09 January 2023 | TALK | BOE Pill: Risks from higher natural gas prices, tight labour mkt, adverse labour supply developments and goods mkt bottlenecks. If imported gas prices remain higher than in past, threat of 2nd round inflation remains. | Hawkish comments – Feb 2 meeting, implying further rate hikes needed. Consensus point to 50bp hike (70% chance). | Broad $ weakness helps GBPUSD touch highs of 1.6223 and close higher than open. | GBPUSD | 1.6196 | 1.6223 |
| US | 06 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Non Farm payrolls 223K exptd 200K last 256K (Rev) Dec Unemp 3.5% exptd 3.7% last 3.6% Dec Avge Hourly earnings MoM 0.3% exptd and last 0.4% | Payrolls was roughly in line, but Hourly earnings was the key for market to view the data as dovish. Debate over qtr/half pt hike comes down to CPI. | Lower yields, weaker $ | USD index US 2 year yields. | 105.05 4.46 | 103.87 4.25 |
| US | 06 January 2023 | TALK | Fed Bostic: Despite < exptd wage growth, Fed has more work to do and open to 2nd straight 50 bp increase. | Leads to more debate over 25/50 bp hike next meeting, which comes down to next week’s CPI. | Lower yields, weaker $ | USD index US 2 year yields. | 105.05 4.46 | 103.87 4.25 |
| Euro | 06 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec CPI Flash Est 9.2% exptd 9.6% last 10.1% (Rev from 10%) Dec Core CPI Flash Est 45.2% exptd 5.1% last 5% Dec Retail Sales YoY -2.8% exptd -3.3% last -2.6% | Expectations were lowered through releases from other EZ economies, but was < exptd weeks ago and also extent of drop. Focus likely to shift from inflation peak to pace of inflation drop. | EURUSD ↑ to monthly highs of 1.0648, mkts expecting hawkish ECB as Core has ↑ | EURUSD | 1.0521 | 1.0639 |
| India | 06 January 2023 | ECONDATA | 2022-23 Fiscal year growth Prelim 7%, exptd 6.9% last 8.7% | Apr 22 – Mar 23 forecast. | $ driven moves. | USDINR | 82.5500 | 82.2700 |
| UK | 05 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec S&P Global PMI Final Services 49.9, exptd 50 last 48.8 Composite 49 as exptd, last 48.2 | Fractional ↓ in activity, inflation rates down but still high. Employment unchanged, ending long period of jobs growth. | ↓ in GBPUSD after data to lows of 1.1873 as it highlights likelihood Britain is already in recession | GBPUSD. | 1.2053 | 1.1902 |
| China | 05 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Caixin PMI Services 48, last 46.7, exptd 47.5 Comp 48.3 last 47 PBoC, Banking and insurance regulator says theyy have established a dynamic adjustment mechanism on mortgage rates for 1st time buyers in a bid to further support the property sector. | On PMI, Softer ↓ in business activity and new work; inflationary pressures ease further, business confidence hits 17 mnth highs. | $CNY moves are due to support in the property sector. | USDCNY 1 year CNY NDF | 6.8836 6.7011 | 6.8795 6.7011 |
| US | 04 January 2023 | CENTRALBANK | FOMC Minutes of Dec 13-14 meeting: Inflation risks key factors being monitored, Concerns of ‘unwarranted’ easing in financial conditions that would undermine efforts to tame inflation. Further rate hikes needed, no cuts in 2023. | Despite Fed’s own forecast of over 5% in 2023, markets continue to price a dovish view. Mkts are heading into payrolls tomorrow. | Modest ↑ in 2 year rates while $ index range bound, struggles to advance. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.58 4.37 | 104.24 4.35 |
| US | 04 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.4, exptd 48.5 last 49 | One of the best indicators of US economy, 2nd consecutive month of contraction. +ve labour market story by JOLTS. | $ broadly falls on news from EZ (inflation), AU etc,. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.58 4.37 | 104.24 4.35 |
| Euro | 04 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec PMI Composite 49.3, exptd 48.8 last 48.7 Services 49.8, exptd 49.1 last 48.5 French and German Inflation fell more than exptd | Services – softest ↓ in services activity since last Aug. Job creation at 20 month low. Brings into qn ECB’s hawkish note in Dec 2022. | Following $ consolidation EUR$ recovered and closed higher. | EURUSD | 1.0546 | 1.0601 |
| India | 04 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec PMI Composite 59.4 last 56.7 Services 58.5, exptd 55.8 last 56.4 | Composite highest since Jan 2012. | $ consolidation following yesterday’s ↑ + slide in oil prices = INR slightly higher. | USDINR Brent Crude oil Futures | 82.75 82.31 | 82.66 77.84 |
| UK | 03 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Final Manufacturing PMI 45.3, exptd 44.7 last 46.5 | At 31 month lows, and < 50 for 5 consecutive months. Output, new ord and employment all ↓ at faster rates. | Weak data weighs on GBPUSD, breaching 1.20 level to lows of 1.1899 | GBPUSD. | 1.2044 | 1.1966 |
| US | 03 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Manufacturing PMI 46.2 as exptd, last 47.7 | NFP is the big focus for the week. Overall risk on mode for the day | Confusing ↑ in the USD while yields are lower. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.66 4.40% | 104.51 4.37% |
| Japan | 02 January 2023 | TALK | BOJ Kuroda: BOJ will continue monetary policy easing to achieve price target in tandem with wage growth. Nikkei Asian Review: PM Kishida – will discuss whether to rework the inflation target with the new BoJ Gov/. | Nikkei review is on a hawkish note. $JPY moves $ driven and awaiting FOMC minutes and ISM. | BOJ comment not really weighing on JPY though JPY closed slightly stronger. | USDJPY | 131.1000 | 130.6000 |
| China | 02 January 2023 | EVENT | Reports: China to consider partial end to Australian coal ban. | The ban was imposed late 2020 when AU called for independent investigation into COVID origns. Lifting ban means lesser power outages like 2021 and to a lesser extent 2022. | AUDUSD ↑ to highs of 0.6822 on the improved risk sentiment and closed slightly lower. | AUDUSD USDCNY | 0.6817 6.8967 | 0.6797 6.8967 |
| India | 02 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Manufacturing PMI 57.8, exptd 54.3 last 55.7 | Highest level since Oct 2020. Case for further rate hikes. | USDINR | 82.6900 | 82.7200 | |
| Euro | 02 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Manufacturing PMI 47.8 as exptd, last 47.1 | Intensity of downturn eased on softening inflation pressures and more stable supply chain conditions. However, < 50 for 6th consecutive month. | $ driven moves. | EURUSD | 1.0699 | 1.0664 |
| China | 02 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.0 exptd 48.8 last 49.4 | > exptd, but lowest since Dec 2020. Overall seen as midly +ve; COVID outbreaks following reopening the bigger picture. | AUDUSD ↑ on data | AUDUSD USDCNY | 0.6798 6.9620 | 0.6726 6.8972 |