| Country | Date | Event Type | Market Event | Context | Market Reaction | Indicator | Open | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar Mfg PMI 56.4 last 55.3 | Oil was the main theme of the move in INR> Economists: 10% ↑ in oil leads to CA deficit ↑ of 0.3 – 0.5% of GDP. | INR moves driven by ↑ in oil prices, USDINR touched highs of 82.45 | USDINR | 82.1300 | 82.1600 |
| India | 15 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Imports $51.31bln, last $50.66bln, Exports $33.88bln, last $32.91bln. Balance of Trade $-17.43bln | Driven by fall in imports but Commerce Sec: Figures are encouraging, able to keep up the momentum. | INRfails to show strength despite soft US inflation data also also on USD demand from banks. | USDINR | 82.2250 | 82.8600 |
| India | 13 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Inflation YoY 6.44% last 6.52% MoM 0.17% last 0.46% | Still > RBI’s target of 4+/-2% medium term target as well as expectations, boosting chance of another rate hike in Apr. | INR weakens on weak risk sentiment from SVB + $ recovered some lost ground. | USDINR | 81.9100 | 82.4100 |
| India | 10 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Industrial Prodn YoY 5.2% last 4.7% Jan Manufacturing Prodn YoY 3.7% last 3.1% | All > exptd. | INR strengthens for the day but narrow ranges. | USDINR | 82.0000 | 81.9100 |
| India | 03 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Services PMI 59.4 last 57.2 Feb Comp PMI 59 last 57.5 | Broad USD’s pullback puts on one of the best weekly performance for INR. | USDINR | 82.33 | 81.66 | |
| India | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Global Manufacturing PMI 55.3 last 55.4 | Boost in CNY had an impact on Asian Ccys | INR ↑ as USDINR touched lows of 82.37 (lowest since 10 Feb). | USDINR | 82.5600 | 82.4100 |
| India | 28 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth rate YoY 4.4% last 6.3% | < exptd | INR remains supported by hawkish RBI. | USDINR | 82.6400 | 82.6200 |
| India | 22 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBI Minutes: Increasing degree of concern that inflation will move > 6%. Retail inflation ↑ unexpectedly, which prompted consideration of further rate hikes. | Potential for future rate hikes strengthened. | INR↑ on the minutes. | USDINR | 82.8200 | 82.8100 |
| India | 13 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan CPI YoY 6.52% last 5.72%, MoM 0.46% last -0.45% | Highest in 3 months and > exptd. | 10 year yields reached Feb highs (so far) of 7.387% but closed lower. | IN 10 year benchmark yield | 7.38% | 7.36% |
| India | 10 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Industrial Prodn YoY 4.3% last 7.3% Dec Manufacturing Prodn YoY 2.6% last 6.4% | ↑ in Crude oil + Russia’s plan to ↓ oil prodn weighs on INR. Low vols + attractive carry is a good INR story. | INR ends little changed with $, but worst trading week in 2 months. | USDINR 1 year ATM Vols for USDINR | 82.48 6% | 82.49 6% |
| India | 08 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBI ↑ rates by 25 bps to 6.5% as exptd. RBI Das: While inflation exptd to moderate in FY24, will rule above 4% target. | INR strengthens, aided by weaker $. | USDINR | 82.7900 | 82.6300 | |
| India | 03 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan PMI Services 57.2 last 58.5 Composite 57.5 last 59.4 | > long run avge of 53.5, favourable demand conditions and increases in new work. | All moves defined by USD rebound on Non Farm for the day. | USDINR | 82.0200 | 82.4300 |
| India | 01 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | Union Budget: Capex to ↑ 33% to INR 10 trln, Govt eyes fiscal deficit of 5.9% in 2023/24, 4.5% by 2025/26. Proposal to limit tax exemptions for insurance proceeds, Rebate limit for personal tax ↑ from 500K to 700K. INR300 bln for energy transition. | Biggest ever ↑ in capital spending. Overall -ve for insurance companies. Elections in over a year, so govt spending earlier than exptd. Fiscal responsibility broadly welcomed. | INR strengthened on budget to 81.79 (USDINR) but also tracked equities, so Adani sell off had an impact. Yields had a bigger drop. | USDINR IN 10 year yields | 81.8 7.41% | 81.67 7.27% |
| India | 01 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Manufacturing PMI 55.4 last 57.8 exptd 57.4 | Anxiety on Fed meeting, budget policies etc bears on the INR. | Risk averse theme generally – USDINR ↑ for the day. | USDINR | 81.8000 | 81.7100 |
| India | 16 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec WPI Inflation YoY 4.95% exptd 5.6% last 5.85% Dec Exports and Imports > last. Dec Balance of trade $-23.67bln. | WPI lowest since Feb 2021. Primarily due to ↓fuel rates and stability in food prices. | INR weakens as USDINR touches highs of 81.73 | USDINR | 81.2700 | 81.6000 |
| India | 12 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Nov Industrial Prodn YoY 7.1% exptd 2.6% last -4% Nov Manufacturing Prodn 6.1% last -5.6% Dec CPI YoY 5.72% exptd 5.9% last 5.88% | Ind and Mfg production all >> exptd. | INR broadly strengthened as USDINR touches lows of 81.11. | USDINR | 81.6300 | 81.1700 |
| India | 06 January 2023 | ECONDATA | 2022-23 Fiscal year growth Prelim 7%, exptd 6.9% last 8.7% | Apr 22 – Mar 23 forecast. | $ driven moves. | USDINR | 82.5500 | 82.2700 |
| India | 04 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec PMI Composite 59.4 last 56.7 Services 58.5, exptd 55.8 last 56.4 | Composite highest since Jan 2012. | $ consolidation following yesterday’s ↑ + slide in oil prices = INR slightly higher. | USDINR Brent Crude oil Futures | 82.75 82.31 | 82.66 77.84 |
| India | 02 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Manufacturing PMI 57.8, exptd 54.3 last 55.7 | Highest level since Oct 2020. Case for further rate hikes. | USDINR | 82.6900 | 82.7200 |