China

CountryDateEvent TypeMarket EventContextMarket ReactionIndicatorOpenClose
China03 April 2023ECONDATAMar Mfg PMI 50 last 51.6Notably < exptd. This focuses on smaller firms, miss largely driven by weakness in export orders. Indicates foreign demand will remain a headwind.CNY weakened slightly as USDCNY touches highs of 6.8940 for the day.USDCNY6.86716.8771
China31 March 2023ECONDATAMar NBS Mfg PMI 51.9 last 52.6
Mar NBS Non Mfg PMI 58.2 last 56.3		Shows an economy in recovery. Other themes are Biden’s double taxation rule – to antagonize China if Taiwan treated as soverign.CNY strengthens for the day.USDCNY6.87056.8671
China27 March 2023TALKFin Min Liu: China will intensify efforts to implement a strong fiscal policy and efficient taxation system this year.Mover has been the fall in industrial profit.USD gains for the day impacting USDCNY.USDCNY6.86706.8829
China20 March 2023CENTRALBANKPBoC ↓ Reserve requirement by 25 bps. This will exclude financial institutions that have implemented 5% RRR. Will not resort to flood like stimulus, keep total credid appropriate.
PBOC keeps 1 year LPR at 3.65% as exptd. 		Surprise move on RRR, prospects of higher liquidity. Seen as a proactive policy.CNY strengthens for the day but Global banking and related risk aversion moves define USDCNY.USDCNY6.88456.8765
China17 March 2023CENTRALBANKPboC ↓ Reserve requirement by 25 bps. This will exclude financial institutions that have implemented 5% RRR. Will not resort to flood like stimulus, keep total credid appropriate.Surprise move, prospects of higher liquidity. Seen as a proactive policy.CNY strengthens for the day but Global banking and related risk aversion moves define USDCNY.USDCNY6.89606.8845
China15 March 2023ECONDATAJan-Feb Industrial Prodn YoY 2.4% last 1.3%
Jan-Feb Retail Sales YoY 3.5% last -1.8%
Feb Unemp rate 5.6% last 5.5%		Retail sales back to growth while factory activity expanded slower than exptd, property sector remained weak. Global mkts all tracking turmoil in Credit Suisse, speculations major central banks could take less aggressive approach in tightening.CNY continues to remain in backfoot, also capped by Fed’s uncertainty.USDCNY6.86756.9062
China09 March 2023ECONDATAFeb CPI YoY 1% last 2.1%
MoM -0.5% last 0.8%		Slowest annual CPI in a year and < exptd. While this can lead to rate cuts, but govt at annual NPC set growth target of 5% which is lower end of expectations.CNY weakened for the day.USDCNY6.94916.9625
China07 March 2023ECONDATAJan-Feb YoY
Exports -6.8% last -9.9%
Imports -10.2% exptd -7.5%
Trade Balance $116.8bln, last $78 bln		Weak data, Exports to the US, Europe, and Japan ↓ while shipments to SEA ↑. Mkts did not anticipate slower pace of recovery.CNY weakens for the day with USDCNY also supported by USD strength on Powell.USDCNY6.92906.9600
China03 March 2023ECONDATAFeb Services PMI 55 last 52.9
Feb Comp PMI 54.2 last 51.1		Services – steepest ↑ since last Aug as removing COVID restrictions revived demand.Mild strengthening in CNY.USDCNY6.91176.9043
China01 March 2023ECONDATAFeb NBS Manufacturing PMI 52.6 last 50.1
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.3 last 54.4
Feb Caxin Manufacturing PMI 51.6 last 49.2		Factory activity grew at fastest pace since Apr 2012. Much of rebound due to infrastructure spending, which is supportive for commodity ccys as well. Recovery supports the reopening story. Supported also by Moody’s that raised forecast for China’s GDP to 5% for 2023/24 from 4%CNY strengthens broadly, and this helped AUDUSD higher as well.USDCNY

AUDUSD		6.9273

0.6728		6.8651

0.6757
China20 February 2023CENTRALBANKLoan Prime rate 1Y at 3.65%, 5Y at 4.3% both unchanged.Rates unchanged for 6th consecutive month, higher rates in other major economices leaves little room for easing. PBoC keen to maintain sufficient liquidity after end to zero-COVID policy.Muted reaction from CNY and related asset classes, CNY closed slightly stronger for the day.USDCNY6.86566.8536
China15 February 2023CENTRALBANKPBoC keeps 1 year MLF (medium term lending facility) rate unchanged at 2.75%CNY comes under pressure, also from strong US CPI/hawkish Fed.USDCNY6.82506.8505
China10 February 2023ECONDATAJan Inflation rate YoY 2.1% last 1.8%, MoM 0.8% last 0%
Jan PPI YoY -0.8%		CPI boosted by seasonal New year spending. Headwinds in economy – ailing property sector, weakening external demand for exports. Factory gate prices fell > exptd.CNY weakens as factory gate prices acts as headwinds for recovery.USDCNY6.77776.8065
China03 February 2023ECONDATAJan PMI
Services 52.9 last 48
Composite 51.1 last 48.3		Services rebounds > exptd as demand ↑ on relaxing COVID restrictions + Lunar New year spending. Headwinds are high COVID cases and staff absences.All moves defined by USD rebound on Non Farm for the day.USDCNY6.72846.7728
China01 February 2023ECONDATAJan Final Manufacturing PMI 49.2 last 49, exptd 49.5Softer ↓ in output and new orders despite COVID reopening, still < 50Ranges have been narrow since this week is return from holidays.USDCNY6.75406.7400
China31 January 2023ECONDATAJan NBS Manufacturing PMI 50.1 last 47Adding to optimism is China’s CDC saying current COVID wave infections is nearing an end, no rebound during New Year.Risk on mode reflecting on AUDUSD and USDCNYUSDCNY

AUDUSD		6.7475

0.7055		6.7535

0.7054
China20 January 2023CENTRALBANKPBoC keeps rates unch – Loan prime rate 5Y at 4.3%, 1Y at 3.65%at historic lows for 5th straight month. Mkts also looking at COVID hospitalizations that hit highest since pandemic began. Lunar new year means spread to rural areas.CNY weakened for the day as USDCNY touched highs of 6.7929 – mkts closed for Lunar New year.
USDCNH
6.76806.7810
China17 January 2023ECONDATAQ4 GDP Growth Rate YoY 2.9% exptd 1.8% last 3.9%
Dec Industrial Prodn YoY 1.3% exptd 0.2% last 2.2%
Dec Retail Sales -1.8% exptd -8.6% last -5.9%
Dec Unemp rate 5.5%		Growth > exptd, and outlook for 2023 is stronger due to relaxation of covid policies.CNY weakened for the day. USDCNY touched highs of 6.7899USDCNY6.74026.7672
China13 January 2023ECONDATADec YoY
Exports -9.9% exptd -10% last -8.9%
Imports -7.5% exptd -9.7% last -10.6%
Trade Balance $78 bln		Exports ↓ on global demand cooling, imports ↓ on COVID resurgance and property downturn.$CNH extends decline more on $’s broad weakness.USDCNY

USDCNH		6.7365

6.7239		6.7005

6.7048
China12 January 2023ECONDATADec CPI
YoY 1.8% as exptd, last 1.6%
MoM 0% exptd -0.1% last -0.2%
Official target of around 3%, inflation unlikely to hit heights of other major economies on reopening. Allows for further loosening by PBoCUSDCNY

USDCNH		6.7672

6.7653		6.7360

6.7242
China05 January 2023ECONDATADec Caixin PMI
Services 48, last 46.7, exptd 47.5
Comp 48.3 last 47
PBoC, Banking and insurance regulator says theyy have established a dynamic adjustment mechanism on mortgage rates for 1st time buyers in a bid to further support the property sector. 		On PMI, Softer ↓ in business activity and new work; inflationary pressures ease further, business confidence hits 17 mnth highs.$CNY moves are due to support in the property sector.USDCNY

1 year CNY NDF		6.8836

6.7011		6.8795

6.7011
China02 January 2023EVENTReports: China to consider partial end to Australian coal ban.The ban was imposed late 2020 when AU called for independent investigation into COVID origns. Lifting ban means lesser power outages like 2021 and to a lesser extent 2022.AUDUSD ↑ to highs of 0.6822 on the improved risk sentiment and closed slightly lower.AUDUSD

USDCNY		0.6817

6.8967		0.6797

6.8967
China02 January 2023ECONDATADec Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.0 exptd 48.8 last 49.4> exptd, but lowest since Dec 2020. Overall seen as midly +ve; COVID outbreaks following reopening the bigger picture.AUDUSD ↑ on dataAUDUSD
USDCNY
0.6798
6.9620		0.6726
6.8972