| Country | Date | Event Type | Market Event | Context | Market Reaction | Indicator | Open | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 04 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA: Keeps rates on hold, cash rate at 3.6% RBA Statement: Inflation has peaked, labout mkt remains tight, further tightening might be needed. | Pause after 10 consecutive hikes, in line with exptd. | AUDUSD moves lower on dovish move, touches lows of 0.6720 for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6781 | 0.6751 |
| Australia | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar Mfg Final PMI 49.1 last 50.5 Feb Retail Sales MoM Final 0.2% last 1.8% | Less impact from the data, as mkts focused on RBA tomorrow. | AUDUSD touched multi week highs of 0.6790 (levels last seen 24 Feb), steadies ahead of RBA. | AUDUSD | 0.6685 | 0.6781 |
| Australia | 28 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Retail Sales MoM Prelim 0.2% last 1.8% Feb CPI YoY 6.8% last 7.4% | Reinforces view that economy is slowing. CPI < exptd, RBA target band 2-3. News that Treasurer Chalmers will convene a meeting of top financial regulators to check impact of volatility in mkts boosted optimism a bit. | Despite the data, risk on mood meant a firm bias in AUDUSD as it closed higher for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6648 | 0.6705 |
| Australia | 23 March 2023 | ECONDATA | March Flash PMI Manufacturing 48.7 last 50.5 Services 48.2 last 50.7 Comp 48.1 last 50.6 | Private sector activity softens but business cofidence rises. Manufacturing PMI at 19 mnth lows, Comp at 3 month lows. | AUDUSD slightly ↓ on the data but closed slightly higher for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6681 | 0.6687 |
| Australia | 21 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA Minutes: Further monetary tightening expected to be required to bring inflation down. Recent releases on GDP, wages, inflation were softer than exptd but shortfalls to expectations not too large. | Less hawkish | AUDUSD ↓ to lows of 0.6649 (breaching 0.6700 level) for the day despite the broad USD weakness. | AUDUSD | 0.6715 | 0.6668 |
| Australia | 20 March 2023 | TALK | RBA Kent: Australian banks are unquestionably strong, Capital, liquidity positions well > apra’s regulatory requirements. | Risk on mood on CS deal + positive comments. | AUDUSD ↑ on upbeat comments, highs of 0.6740 (highest since 7 March) | AUDUSD | 0.6690 | 0.6715 |
| Australia | 16 March 2023 | ECONDATA | March Consumer Inflation Expectations 5%, last 5.1% Feb Unemp rate 3.5% last 3.7% Feb Emp change 64.6K last -10.9K Participation rate 66.6% | Data > exptd, Unemp rate matching lowest since 1970s. Focus still on global banking turmoil. | AUDUSD ↑ on upbeat data, and closed higher for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6613 | 0.6651 |
| Australia | 07 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA ↑ cash rate by 25 bps to 3.5% as exptd. RBA Statement: Monthly CPI suggests inflation has peaked, board seeking to return inflation to 2-3% range. Lower risk of wage price spiral. RBA Lowe: Monetary policy now in restrictive territory, a pause could come in April. | Tone of statement seen as more dovish than Feb statement. Indication it is not precommitting to Apr hike. | AUDUSD ↓ below 0.6600 briefly after the announcement to lows of 0.6581. | AUDUSD AU 10 year yields. | 0.6727 3.76% | 0.6581 3.66% |
| Australia | 02 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Services PMI Final 50.7 last 48.6 Feb Comp PMI Final 50.6 last 48.5 | Services > exptd, | No related moves, all USD drive. | AUDUSD | 0.6759 | 0.6728 |
| Australia | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth rate QoQ 0.5% last 0.7% Jan CPI YoY 7.4% last 8.4% | Softer data, but neither changing the story on RBA needing to hike rates. Rate hikes begin to bite. | Crushes AUDUSD to lows breaching 0.6700 level to 0.6695. | AUDUSD | 0.6728 | 0.6757 |
| Australia | 28 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Retail Sales MoM Prelim 1.9% last -0.4% Q4 Current Account A$1.4bln, last A$0.8 bln Jan CPI YoY 7.4% last 8.4% Q4 GDP YoY 2.7%, last 5.9%; QoQ 0.5% last 0.7% | Rebound in retail sales, suggesting households yet to feel the pinch of rising rates. Domestic demand retains some momentum. Economy grew more than any other advanced economies. | Risk appetite not high enough to impact on AUDUSD, closed lower for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6731 | 0.6726 |
| Australia | 22 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 Wage Price Index YoY 3.3% last 3.2% QoQ 0.8% last 1.1% | Vindicates RBA’s hawkish stance. Mkt awaits FOMC mins. | $ driven moves + RBNZ’s slowing pace of tightening: AUDUSD ↓ for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6850 | 0.6801 |
| Australia | 21 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA Mins of Feb 7 meeting: Considered 25bp and 50bp hike, opting for 25 bp hike. No consideration of pausing. | More hawkish than exptd, need for additional hikes (plural). | AUDUSD touched highs of 0.6919 for the day but closed lower. | AUDUSD | 0.6905 | 0.6851 |
| Australia | 20 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Flash PMI Manufacturing 50.1, last 50 Services 49.2 last 48.6 Composite 49.2 last 48.5 | Shows further signs of turnaround in feb. | Little change in AUDUSD, tight ranges though closed higher. | AUDUSD | 0.6877 | 0.6906 |
| Australia | 16 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Unemp 3.7% last 3.5% Jan Employment change -11.5K, last -19.9K Participation rate 66.5% last 66.6% | Disapointing, < exptd as unemp at 8 month highs. However, not cooling enough to justify RBA pause. | AUDUSD ↓ on the release and breached 0.6900 to lows of 0.6840 for the day. | AUDUSD | 0.6902 | 0.6878 |
| Australia | 15 February 2023 | TALK | RBA Lowe: Inflation too high, needs to come down. Risk we have not yet done enough on interest rates. | RBA’s recent hawkish turn saw mkts price in peak of 4.2% | Not as hawkish as Fed so AUDUSD stays below 0.7000. | AUDUSD | 0.6985 | 0.6901 |
| Australia | 10 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA Statement on Monetary Policy: Revised up forecasts for core inflation, wages growth. | Hawkish statement, suggesting it is thinking of at least 2 more hikes this yr. | Does little for AUDUSD. | AUDUSD | ||
| Australia | 07 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | RBA ↑ cash rate by 25 bps to 3.35% RBA Statement: Further ‘increases’ would be needed in the months ahead. | Omitted previous condition that policy was not on ‘pre set’ path. More hawkish than exptd. 9th straight month of ↑. Total of 325 bps of hikes since May 2022. | AUDUSD and AU yields (10 year) ↑ to touch highs of 0.6988 and 3.664% on the hawkish statements. | AUDUSD AU 10 year yields. | 0.6881 3.538% | 0.6957 3.649% |
| Australia | 06 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Retail SalesMoM Final -3.9%, last 1.7% | With China reopening and global factors, domestic data appears less relevant in major mkt moves. Mkts expecting RBA tomorrow. | AUDUSD ↓ also on $ driven moves. | AUDUSD | 0.6917 | 0.6817 |
| Australia | 01 February 2023 | TALK | RBA Kohler: RBA believes inflation peaked in Q4 2022. | Dovish bias | AUDUSD corrected the previous day’s rebound to touch lows of 0.7036 before closing higher at 0.7133 | AUDUSD | 0.7054 | 0.7133 |
| Australia | 31 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Retail Sales MoM Prelim -3.9% last 1.7% | Bad numbers, largest decline since Aug 2020. Consumption is 60% of AU’s GDP. | Cautious mood, expectedly AUDUSD ↓ to lows of 0.6984. | AUDUSD | 0.7055 | 0.7054 |
| Australia | 25 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 Inflation Rate YoY 7.8%, last 7.3% QoQ 1.9% last 1.8% | All > expectations with no peak in sight – less chance of any RBA pause. | AUDUSD rallies hard after data, touches highs of 0.7122 | AUDUSD | 0.7045 | 0.7104 |
| Australia | 23 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Flash PMI Manufacturing 49.8, last 50.2 Services 48.3 last 47.3 Composite 48.2 last 47.5 | Softer PMIs, all < exptd. Mfg PMI drops to lowest since May 2020. | AUDUSD bulls take a breather despite weaker $. Remains>0.7000 | AUDUSD | 0.6966 | 0.7025 |
| Australia | 19 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Employment Change -14.6K exptd 22.5K last 58.2K Dec Unemp rate at 3.5% | A headwind for AUD. | Broad ↓ in AUDUSD on weak data + risk-off sentiment, lows of 0.6872 | AUDUSD | 0.6941 | 0.6908 |
| Australia | 10 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Nov CPI YoY 7.3% as exptd, last 6.9% Nov Retail Sales MoM 1.4% exptd 0.4% last 0.6% | On retail sales, Black Friday appears to have given a boost. | AUDUSD ↑, touching highs of 0.6928 helped by data. | AUDUSD | 0.6910 | 0.6887 |