Euro

CountryDateEvent TypeMarket EventContextMarket ReactionIndicatorOpenClose
Euro03 April 2023ECONDATAMar Mfg PMI Final 47.3 last 48.5

ECB Guindos: Believe headline inflation likely to decline while underlying inflation dynamics remain strong. 		Hawkish comments and PMI revised up together boosted the EURUSD.EURUSD rebounded sharply from lows of 1.0788 to over 1.09 level.EURUSD1.08391.0895
Euro31 March 2023ECONDATAFeb Unemp rate 6.6% as last
Mar CPI Flash 6.9% last 8.5%		Core inflation toucehd record highs – ECB raising rates more than Fed.EURUSD closed the day lower as mainly on USD related moves.EURUSD1.09041.0842
Euro30 March 2023CENTRALBANK



TALK		ECB Economic Bulletin: Inflation projected to remain too high for long – 5.3% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Persistently elevated mkt conditions could tighten broader credit conditions more strongly than exptd and dampen confidence.

ECB Elderson: Must reduce the very high rate of inflation. 		Bulletin was released before the most recent banking stress, might take next month’s report to get the full picture.EURUSD edged up also on German inflation data > exptd, to highs of 1.0962EURUSD1.08431.0904
Euro29 March 2023TALKECB Kazmir: We agreed we will not give guidance about May meeting. Core inflation key in nearest decisions, We should continue raising rates, possibly at slower pace.
ECB Lane: Rates must rise if banking tension has no or ‘fairly limited’ impact.
ECB Schnabel: Underlying inflation proving sticky, recent ↓ in energy costs may not pull it down as fast as some expect. 		Hawkish rhetoric but ECB talk fails to move the needle.Extremely Tight range trading in EURUSD.EURUSD1.08421.0843
Euro27 March 2023TALKECB De Cos: Future monetary policy will depend on 3: Ecnomic, Financial data and core inflation.
ECB Simkus: Bank liquidity and capitalization high in Euro area.
ECB Centento: Wage increase still compatible with monetary policy, not observing 2nd round effect on wage setting.
ECB Schnabel:@ No sign of weakening in labour mkt, balance sheet exptd to decline meaningfuly over coming yrs. 		Lack of other significant relesae or event for the day, ECB speak is broadly EUR +ve. Mjkts generally quiet.EURUSD moves with a bullish bias for the day, closed higher for the day.EURUSD1.07721.0797
Euro24 March 2023ECONDATA


TALK		Mar PMI Flash
Manufacturing 47.1 last 48.5
Services 55.6 last 52.7
Comp 54.1 last 52

ECB Nagel: ECB must continue to ↑ rates to fight inflation. Wage developments likely to prolong the prevailing period of high inflation.
ECB Lagarde: Euro area banking sectory is resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. No trade off between price stability and financial stability. 		> exptd PMI data fails to create an impact as in separate news, DB CDS ↑ and shares dive. Theme was risk aversion.EURUSD ↓ on DB news to lows of 1.0712.EURUSD1.08281.0759
Euro22 March 2023TALKECB Lagarde: Must and will bring down inflation to target. No evidence underlying inflation trending down. Neither committed to raise rates further nor finished hiking rates.
ECB Nagel: There is still some way to go, but we are approaching restrictive territory.
ECB Wunsch: Will probably need to raise rates if mkts stabilize but need time to assess full impact of banking crisis. 		Moves driven mainly by USD on Fed’s dovish hike but comments are broadly EUR +veMkt moves on dovish Fed which was USD -ve.EURUSD1.07651.0854
Euro20 March 2023EVENT



TALK		UBS Buys Credit Suisse after weekend negotiations. CS’s CHF 1.6bln of AT1 contingent capital bonds written down to zero.

ECB Lagarde: Pecking order for any write downs in Europe very clear. Highly recommend complete Basel III implementation. ‘Very confident’ capital and liquidity positions of Euro area banks well in excess of requirements. ECB has more ground to cover based on current baseline. Will understand labour market in the spring.
Uncertainty especially over CoCos, rush for safety.Yields hit lowest and EURUSDEURUSD1.06861.0717
Euro17 March 2023TALKECB Muller: Not many euro area banks that took risks like SVB did. SNB intervention in CS made decision making easier.
ECB Villeroy: We sent a strong message of confidence (rates)
ECB Simkus: Terminal rate has not been reached yet.
ECB Kazimir: Need to continue to rate hikes but no need to speculate on May decision.

Investor sentiment broadly fragile as focus was on CS/UBS deal. Looks like ECB does not expect much contagion from CS.EURUSD is generally on front foot also as USD ↓ and mood improves.EURUSD1.06091.0664
Euro17 March 2023ECONDATAFeb CPI YoY Final 8.5% last 8.6%, MoM 0.8% last -0.2%Moves mainly focusing on banking crisis in US and Europe.EURUSD continues ↑ touching highs of 1.0685 for the day and closed higher.EURUSD1.06091.0664
Euro16 March 2023CENTRALBANKECB Rate Decn: ↑ rates by 50 bps as inflation remains major concern. Reiterating importance of data driven approach to monetary policy moving forward. ECB’s policy toolkit fully equipped to provide liquidity support to Euro area financial system if needed.
ECB Lagarde: If baseline persists, ECB will still have a lot more ground to cover. Wage pressures have strengthened. Not seeing a lot of improvement in underlying inflation. 		Follows through the long communicated guidance, but Limited signalling regarding future policy against banking crisis (CS).Relatively narrow moves on EURUSD on the expected rate hike – one of the tightest ranges, EURUSD trading between 1.0635 and 1.0550EURUSD1.05761.0609
Euro15 March 2023ECONDATAJan Industrial Prodn MoM 0.7% last -1.3%
YoY 0.9% last -2%		Manufacturing sector recovery gaining traction. Global mkts all tracking turmoil in Credit Suisse, speculations major central banks could take less aggressive approach in tightening.CS related jitters – EURUSD and EU bond yields ↓ massively.EURUSD

EU 10 year yields		1.0732

2.45%		1.0576

2.18%
Euro07 March 2023TALKECB Knot: ECB can be exptd to keep raising rates for quite sometime after March.USD driven moves on hawkish Powell impacts EURUSD to lows of 1.0546EURUSD1.06781.0549
Euro06 March 2023ECONDATA


TALK		Jan Retail Sales YoY -2.3% last -2.8%
MoM 0.3% last -1.7%

ECB Lagarde: EZ Inflation will stay high in near term so 50 bp rate hike is increasingly certain. 		Hawkish commentsEURUSD a bit higher for the day on hawkish commentaries, highs of 1.0694EURUSD1.06231.0678
Euro03 March 2023ECONDATA

TALK		Feb Services PMI Final 52.7 last 50.8
Feb Comp PMI Final 52 last 50.3
Jan PPI YoY 15% last 24.5%

ECB Muller: It is probably not the final hike in March, rates will remain high for a while. 		Growth accelerating to 8 month highs as renewed stability in mfg prodn accompanied by stronger improvement in services output.

Continued hawkish rhetoric. 		EURUSD touched highs of 1.0638 amid broad USD pullback for the day.EURUSD1.05961.0633
Euro02 March 2023ECONDATA



CENTRALBANK		Jan Unemp 6.7% as last.
Feb Flash CPI YoY 8.5% last 8.6%; MoM 0.8% last -0.2%
Feb Core CPI YoY 5.6% last 5.3%

ECB Accounts of Feb meeting: Members agreed further ↑ in rates required for policy to enter restrictive territory. Agreed no signs of wage price spiral. Mkts paying more attention to core inflation than to headline inflation. 		Inflation not a big surprise, but core inflation > exptd and this rise comes from services. Tight labour mkt ↑ wage hike possibility in coming months.

Stress the ECB’s clear intention to continue hiking rates. 		EURUSD ↓ broadly on Inflation data.EURUSD1.06651.0596
Euro01 March 2023ECONDATAFeb Manufacturing PMI Final 48.5 last 48.8At 2 month lows.EURUSD boosted more by > exptd German inflation data.EURUSD1.05721.0665
Euro23 February 2023ECONDATAJan CPI YoY Final 8.6% last 9.2%
MoM final -0.2% last -0.4%		Range bound EURUSD.EURUSD1.06031.0577
Euro21 February 2023ECONDATAFeb Flash PMI
Manufacturing 48.5, last 48.8
Services 53 last 50.8
Composite 52.3 last 50.3		Short term forecasts are EUR -ve and is seen in the currency trends.EURUSD continues < 1.0700 prior and after the data.EURUSD1.06841.0643
Euro20 February 2023ECONDATA
TALK		Feb Flash Consumer Confidence -19 last -20.7

ECB Rehn: Appropriate to raise rates beyond March and reach terminal rate this summer. 		Improves to highest in a year – sign of hope the region can dodge recession this yr. Outlook brightening also due to slowing inflation.President’s day in the US, so vols are light and ranges tight.EURUSD1.06851.0684
Euro15 February 2023ECONDATA



TALK		Dec Industrial Prodn MoM -1.1% last 1.4%
Dec Trade Balance -EUR8.8bln

ECB Lagarde: Intend to ↑ rates by 50 bp in March. Wages are growing faster, will take necessary steps to tackle inflation. Future pace of APP wind down yet to be determined. 		Data missed expectations, with familiar tone by Lagarde.EURUSD bottoms out at lows of 1.0660EURUSD1.07361.0686
Euro14 February 2023ECONDATAEuro Area Q4 GDP QoQ 2nd Est 0.1% last 0.3%EC had upwardly revised growthAgainst GBP, EUR closes lower.EURGBP0.88310.8818
Euro07 February 2023TALKECB Schnabel: ECB intends to ↑ rates by 50 bps in March, Monetary policy not having impact on inflation as hoped. .
ECB Nagel: Rate cuts not on agenda in foreseeable future, further significant rate hikes are needed. 		Hawkish comments.EURUSD struggled to capitalize on the hawkish comments, broke 1.07 level to lows of 1.0669 before rebounding back.EURUSD1.07251.0723
Euro06 February 2023ECONDATADec retail Sales YoY -2.8% last -2.5%, MoM -2.7%< exptd, together with German factory orders which also came in < exptd.Poor data + USD ↑ on risk sentiment and China baloon concerns = EURUSD touched lows of 1.0709EURUSD1.07801.0725
Euro03 February 2023ECONDATAJan PMI Final
Services 50.8 last 49.8
Composite 50.3 last 49.3		Grows (> 50) for first time since June 2022. Though new orders ↓ it was at softest over this period. Broadly +ve and optimistic.Moves were broadly $ driven due to NFP in the US. Hence EURUSD closed lower.EURUSD1.09091.0792
Euro02 February 2023CENTRALBANKECB ↑ rates by 50 bps – refinancing rate to 3% and deposite rate to 2.5%, Intends another 50 bp hike in March.
Asset purchase program (APP) portfolio to ↓ by EUR15bln/month on avge from Mar – Jun 2023. 		Lagarde was ambigious on the path after March, leading to dovish speculation. Mkts go against hawkish communication.Notable ↓ in EURUSD.EURUSD1.09881.0909
Euro01 February 2023ECONDATAJan CPI Flash YoY 8.5% last 9.2% exptd 9%
Dec Unemp rate 6.6% same as last. 		Softer than exptd, Largely result of ↓ energy prices and subsidies.EURUSD1.08601.0988
Euro31 January 2023ECONDATAQ4 GDP Growth Rate Flash
QoQ 0.1% last 0.3%
Yoy 1.9% last 2.3% 		Avoid contraction but economy still sluggish. Expectations for this week’s ECB remains firm at 50 bp.Slight ↑ in EURUSD.EURUSD1.08481.0860
Euro24 January 2023ECONDATAJan Euro Area Flash PMI
Manufacturing 48.8, last 47.8
Services 50.7 last 49.8
Composite 50.2 last 49.3
Reaction is dependant on ECB than on the PMI data.Sideways trading for the day, rangebound in EURUSDEURUSD1.08681.0882
Euro23 January 2023ECONDATAJan Euro area Flash Consumer Confidence -20.9, exptd -20, last -22ImprovementHawkish sentiment lifted EURUSD aided by ↓ nat gas prices since Dec.EUR 2 yr swap rate
EURUSD
Brent Crude		2.58%
1.0866
87.70		2.61%
1.0868
88.19
Euro23 January 2023TALKECB Knot: ECB set to ↑ rates by 50 bps in both Feb and March, will continue to ↑ rate in the months after.
ECB Rehn: there are grounds for significant increases. 		Looks more likely for 2 more 50 bps hikes before slowing down. Joins Lagarde and hawkish minutes earlier in pushing down dovish speculation.Hawkish sentiment lifted EURUSD aided by ↓ nat gas prices since Dec.EUR 2 yr swap rate
EURUSD
Brent Crude		2.58%
1.0866
87.70		2.61%
1.0868
88.19
Euro19 January 2023CENTRALBANKECB Minutes: ‘Large number’ of members preferred 75 bp hike. Concerns of rate hikes < 75 bps will send wrong message to mkts.
ECB Lagarde: Will stay course with rate hikes, not seeing inflation expectations unanchoring. Inflation too high, determined to bring it down to 2% in timely manner. 2023 will be better than feared, EU job market vibrant. 		Minutes more hawkish than exptd. Speakers reaffirm need for 50 bp hike to continue for a while. Minutes also limits chance of downshift to 25bps.EUR broadly gained ground against peers.

EURUSD

EURGBP

1.0794

0.8740		1.0831

0.8740
Euro18 January 2023ECONDATADec CPI YoY 9.2% as exptd, last 10.1%Expectations of inflation peakedEURUSD1.07871.0794
Euro13 January 2023ECONDATANov Industrial Prodn YoY 2%, exptd 0.5% last 3.4%
MoM 1%
No related moves in the mkt.EURUSD1.08521.0831
Euro10 January 2023ECONDATANov Unemp rate 6.5% as exptd and lastPre-committed to 50 bp hike in next meeting.No specific reaction to this as $ continues its ↓ as reflected in EURUSD.EURUSD1.06391.0728
Euro06 January 2023ECONDATADec CPI Flash Est 9.2% exptd 9.6% last 10.1% (Rev from 10%)
Dec Core CPI Flash Est 45.2% exptd 5.1% last 5%
Dec Retail Sales YoY -2.8% exptd -3.3% last -2.6%
Expectations were lowered through releases from other EZ economies, but was < exptd weeks ago and also extent of drop. Focus likely to shift from inflation peak to pace of inflation drop.EURUSD ↑ to monthly highs of 1.0648, mkts expecting hawkish ECB as Core has ↑EURUSD1.05211.0639
Euro04 January 2023ECONDATADec PMI
Composite 49.3, exptd 48.8 last 48.7
Services 49.8, exptd 49.1 last 48.5
French and German Inflation fell more than exptd 		Services – softest ↓ in services activity since last Aug. Job creation at 20 month low. Brings into qn ECB’s hawkish note in Dec 2022.Following $ consolidation EUR$ recovered and closed higher.EURUSD1.05461.0601
Euro02 January 2023ECONDATADec Manufacturing PMI 47.8 as exptd, last 47.1Intensity of downturn eased on softening inflation pressures and more stable supply chain conditions. However, < 50 for 6th consecutive month.$ driven moves.EURUSD1.06991.0664