UK

CountryDateEvent TypeMarket EventContextMarket ReactionIndicatorOpenClose
UK04 March 2023TALKBOE Pill: Caution is still needed in assessing inflation prospects on potential persistance of domestically generated inflation. Lots of policy-in-the-pipeline still to come though.
BOE Tenreyro: An earlier and faster reversal of recent hikes is likely to keep inflation from falling well below target/. UK facing significant inflation undershoot. 		Tenreyro BOE’s most dovish policymaker, has 2 more meetings before her term ends.GBPUSD touches 10 month highs of 1.2525 (levels last seen June 2022) in a sign the BOE speak has little impact.GBPUSD1.24101.2500
UK03 April 2023ECONDATAMar Mfg PMI Final 47.9 last 49.3< 50 for 8 consecutive months.USD ↓ for the day and helps GBPUSD.GBPUSD1.23251.2410
UK31 March 2023ECONDATAQ4 GDP Final QoQ 0.1% last -0.1%
Q4 CA -£2.48bln, last £-12.74bln		Economic outlook overshadows avoiding recession.GBPUSD weakened, touched lows of 1.2324GBPUSD1.23841.2329
UK29 March 2023TALKBOE Mann: Difficult for BOE to do its Job in H2 as Headline Inflation slows but Core remains persistent. Bank collapses not a MPC issue, very clear to me which way to go while voting for 25 bp hike. Credit conditions part of rate decisions.Rate hike play and Risk on mode on easing health of financial system the main mover for GBP related assetsGBPUSD touches highs of 1.2361 for the day but closes down lower.GBPUSD1.23411.2311
UK27 March 2023TALKBOE Bailey: Additional tightening reqd if inflation continues, recently evidence pointed to more resilient activity in the economy. In social media age striking how quickly bank liquidity pressures can emerge. Rates likely to remain below pre 2008 levels.Upbeat assessment by Bailey.Rangebound but overall GBP+veGBPUSD1.22191.2286
UK24 March 2023ECONDATA




TALK		Feb Retail Sales
MoM 1.2% last 0.9%
YoY -3.5% last -5.2%

Mar PMI Flash
Manufacturing 48 last 49.3
Services 52.8 last 53.5
Comp 52.2 last 53.1

BOE Mann: Feb Retail sales are fairly reliable. My vote for 25 bp hike motivated in part by fact inflation expectations have moderated.

BOE Bailey: Very relieved inflation no longer rising like it was last year. 		Surprise growth in retail sales, and PMI points to avoided recession but fails to create an impact as in separate news, DB CDS ↑ and shares dive. Theme was risk aversion.GBP ↑ against EUR but ↓/USD due to USD safe haven demand. GBPUSD touched lows of 1.2189GBPUSD

EURGBP		1.2285

0.8815		1.2228

0.8787
UK23 March 2023CENTRALBANK

TALK		BOE: Official bank rate raised by 25bps from 4 to 4.25%
on a 7-2 vote favouring hike.

BOE Bailey: Don’t know if 4.25% will be peak in rates. Believe inflation will ↓ rapidly before summer.
BOE Mann:
Fully in line with exptd. Very little guidance given. Swati Dhingra and Tenreyo voted to pause.Initial ↑ in GBPUSD and UK yields after the release but corrected back to narrow levels. 2 year yields closed lower.GBPUSD

UK 2 year yields		1.2262

3.49%		1.2285

3.27%
UK22 March 2023ECONDATAFeb CPI YoY 10.4% last 10.1%
MoM 1.1% last -0.6%		>> exptd, rises 1st time in 4 months. Unwelcome news for BOE that has meeting today. Expectation still a hike.Unsurprisingly saw GBPUSD ↑ after data, Rallies even further to touch highs of 1.2335 for the day on dovish Fed which was USD -ve.GBPUSD1.22161.2262
UK15 March 2023CENTRALBANKSpring Budget Key highlights – Childcare and tax reforms to ↑ pace of growth. Cancel of planned £500 hike in energy bills.Largely as expected budget, exception of abilition of lifetime pension allowance. Hunt avoided big tax cuts and focus was on confidence and certainty.Mixed response to the budget by GBP – drops/USD but gains/EUR.GBPUSD

EURGBP		1.2154

0.8824		1.2056

0.8770
UK14 March 2023ECONDATAJan Unemp rate 3.7% as last
Feb Claimant Count -11.2K last -30.3K		Signs of cooling as wage growth slowed 1st time in more than a year.Muted reaction from GBPUSD on mixed data as recovery fails to follow through.GBPUSD1.21821.2154
UK10 March 2023ECONDATAJan GDP MoM 0.3% last -0.5%, YoY 0%
Jan Industrial Prodn MoM -0.3% last 0.3%, YoY -4.3%
GDP > exptd, with some backtracking from recession idea.Together with data, GBP benefits from USD ↓ on SVB news.GBPUSD1.91981.2029
UK08 March 2023TALKBOE Dhingra: Overtightening poses a material risk at this point. Prudent strategy to hold policy steady.Sharp contrast to peers like Mann who called for more hikes. Dissented last 2 MPC meetings voting to keep rates on hold.range bound pre- NFP with slight $ driven uptick in GBPUSD.GBPUSD1.18241.1843
UK07 March 2023TALKBOE Mann: If recent hawkishness from Fed and ECB is not priced in, GBP could trade still lower. Terminal Rate is still beyond the forecast horizon.case for GBPUSD ↓Mann + Hawkish Powell impacts GBPUSD ↓ to lows of 1.1821GBPUSD1.20171.1824
UK03 March 2023ECONDATAFeb Services PMI Final 53.5 last 48.7
Feb Comp PMI Final 53.1 last 48.5		Business activity and incoming new work both expanding for 1st time since Aug 2022.GBPUSD breaches 1.2 level to highs of 1.2048 amid broad USD pullback for the day.GBPUSD1.19431.2042
UK02 March 2023TALKBOE Pill: Current momentum in economic activity may be stronger than exptd.GBPUSD driven by rate expectations + USD.GBPUSD continues downtrend on Bailey’s comments as well.GBPUSD1.20281.0596
UK01 March 2023TALKBOE Bailey: Would caution against implying we are done ↑ rates, or would need to do more. Some further ↑ might be appropriate but nothing decided. Firm determination to achieve 2% inflation target. Monetary policy cannot alleviate shock to our national real income.Less hawkish, in contrast to peers at Fed and ECB.Gilts underperformed with GBPUSD.UK 2 year yields

GBPUSD		3.68%

1.2019		3.67%

1.2028
UK27 February 2023EVENTWindsor Framework: PM Rishi signed a new trade deal with EU on NI protocol.It includes safeguarding trade flows within UK, protecting NI’s place in UK and giving the region’s assembly say over new EU rules.GBPUSD strengthens on the deal to highs of 1.2066, also due to USD consolidating gains and falling from highs.GBPUSD1.19501.2065
UK23 February 2023TALKBOE Mann: Faling to do enough on rates now risks the worst of both worlds: higher inflation and lower activity. More tightening is needed, and pivot not imminent.Continued hawkish tone.USD strength on geopolitics (China-Rusia) and FOMC + hawkish talk pulls down GBPUSD.GBPUSD1.20451.1991
UK21 February 2023ECONDATAFeb Flash PMI
Manufacturing 49.2, last 47
Services 53.3 last 48.7
Composite 53 last 48.5		Upbeat > exptd data. That said, current hiking cycle coming to an end as a headwind to ccy.Expectedly, GBPUSD ↑ to highs of 1.2147 from below 1.2 level.GBPUSD1.20341.2119
UK17 February 2023ECONDATAJan Retail Sales MoM 0.5% last -1.2%
YoY -5.1% last -6.1%		Given the seasonal adjustment in Nov/Dec/Jan period, will have to wait to get the full macro picture.UK 2 year yields3.80%3.78%
UK16 February 2023TALKBOE Pill: There is a risk of ‘overtightening’ if pace over past few months is maintained. Labour mkt has shown signs of loosening.A suggestion upward pressure on inflation from pay rises may be easing, clearest sign yet that BOE might settle for 25 bps or pause.Weakens the GBPUSD and breaches the 1.2 level to lows of 1.1965GBPUSD1.20231.9913
UK15 February 2023ECONDATAJan CPI YoY 10.1% last 10.5% exptd 10.3%
MoM -0.6% last 0.4%		Falling infaltion eases pressure on BOE. Signals inflation has peaked.GBP ↓ across the board in one of the bgigest drops this month. Lows breaching 1.2000 level to 1.9894GBPUSD1.21701.2023
UK14 February 2023ECONDATADec Unemp rate 3.7% as last and exptd
Jan Claimant Count change -12.9K last -3.2K		Strong data.Bullish momentum for GBPUSD, touched highs of 1.2269.GBPUSD1.21351.2170
UK10 February 2023ECONDATADec GDP MoM -0.5% last +0.1%, YoY -0.1% last 0.6%
Q4 GDP Growth rate QoQ Prel at 0%, last -0.2%
Dec Industrial Prodn YoY -4% last -4.3%
UK avoided technical recession by a whisker. Dec contraction blamed on strikes and wierdly, lack of football games due to world cup.GBPUSD cuts its 3 day ↑ to touch lows of 1.2046.GBPUSD1.21211.2046
UK09 February 2023TALKBOE MPC Report Hearings: Andrew Bailey, Pill and Haskel: Expect inflation to come down rapidly this yr.Provided broad support to the GBP.GBPUSD closed higher on $ related moves.GBPUSD1.20691.2121
UK06 February 2023TALKBOE Mann and Pill: Keep on hiking to neutralise inflation risks, pausing now risks ‘policy boogie’ (Mann). Brexit was a unique trade shock contributing to stubborn inflation.Mann is consistently the most hawkish member. During MPC there was indication there were signals of pausing.GBPUSD reversed recent sell offs but still closed lower as USD generally up on risk sentiment and China concerns.GBPUSD1.20291.2017
UK03 February 2023ECONDATAJan PMI Final
Services 48.7 last 49.9
Composite 48.5 last 49		Rate of ↓ for overall business
activity was the fastest since January 2021. ↓ again for 4th month running. 		All moves defined by USD rebound on Non Farm for the day.GBPUSD1.22231.2050
UK02 February 2023CENTRALBANKBOE ↑ rates by 50 bps to 4% on 7 (hike) – 2 (Unchanged) vote.
Statement: Past ↑ in bank rate exptd to have impact on economy in coming qtrs. BOE Bailey: BOE forecasts suggests inflation will ↓ quite sharply. 		Omission of word ‘forcefully’ while describing how bank tackles inflation. Decision in line with expectations. Below target inflation forecasts, more muted language on tightening. Laying groundwork for ending tightening cycle? Mkts saw the hawkish press release as dovish.Initial reaction – GBPUSD ↑ breaching 1.24 level to highs of 1.2412 but retreats to close lower. Yields fell sharply.GBPUSD

UK 10 year yields		1.2372

3.33%		1.2223

2.98%
UK01 February 2023EVENTThe Times: EU and UK have struck a customs deal that could pave the way for ending yrs of post-Brexit wrangling over Northern Ireland.Should have been a +ve catalyst for GBPUSD but was not.GBPUSD closed higher for the day but fails to fully develop on USD’s weakness.GBPUSD1.23181.2372
UK24 January 2023ECONDATAJan Flash PMI
Manufacturing 46.7, last 45.3
Services 48 last 49.9
Composite 47.8, last 49
Improves but remains below 50. Industrial disputes, staff shortages, export losses, the rising cost of living, and higher interest rates all meant the rate of economic decline gathered pace again.GBPUSD ↓ after the release, with 2 year yields.GBPUSD

UK 2 year yields		1.2373

3.44%.		1.2334

3.36%
UK20 January 2023ECONDATADec Retail Sales MoM -1.% exptd 0.5% last -0.5%
YoY at -5.8%		Unexpectedly fell, Cut back on Christmas spending seen.GBPUSD retreated after data, touched lows of 1.2335 for the dayGBPUSD

UK 2 year yields		1.2387

3.47%		1.2396

3.47%
UK18 January 2023ECONDATADec CPI YoY 10.5% as exptd, last 10.7%Remains elevated but ↓ from last year plays into narrative inflation has peaked in the Western world.GBPUSD rallies on the data to highs of 1.2435GBPUSD

UK 2 year yields		1.2284

3.46%		1.2342

3.47%
UK17 January 2023ECONDATADec Claimant Count change 19.7K, exptd 16K last 16.1K
Nov Unemp rate at 3.7% as last and exptd. 		> exptd though it’s a lagging indicator. Adding a reason for another 50 bp hike.lifts GBPUSD, continued upside momentum touches highs of 1.2300 key level.GBPUSD1.21891.2284
UK16 January 2023TALKBOE Bailey: UK labour shortage a major risk to central case for inflation falling. Likely to have -ve short term impact from COVID in China.Minor slippage in GBPUSDGBPUSD1.22141.2189
UK13 January 2023ECONDATANov GDP YoY 0.2% exptd 0.3% last 1.1%
Nov Industrial Prodn YoY -5.1% exptd -3% last -4.7%
Nov Manufacturing Prodn YoY -5.9% exptd -4.8% last -5.7%
Growth < exptd, smallest since early 2021. Still an expansion. ING's key points: Lack of workers/inactivity rates, vulnerability to housing mkt correction, exposure to Europe's energy crisis.GBPUSD fails to register any significant gains on the data but closed higher.GBPUSD1.22061.2227
UK09 January 2023TALKBOE Pill: Risks from higher natural gas prices, tight labour mkt, adverse labour supply developments and goods mkt bottlenecks. If imported gas prices remain higher than in past, threat of 2nd round inflation remains.Hawkish comments – Feb 2 meeting, implying further rate hikes needed. Consensus point to 50bp hike (70% chance).Broad $ weakness helps GBPUSD touch highs of 1.6223 and close higher than open.GBPUSD1.61961.6223
UK05 January 2023ECONDATADec S&P Global PMI Final
Services 49.9, exptd 50 last 48.8
Composite 49 as exptd, last 48.2
Fractional ↓ in activity, inflation rates down but still high. Employment unchanged, ending long period of jobs growth.↓ in GBPUSD after data to lows of 1.1873 as it highlights likelihood Britain is already in recessionGBPUSD.1.20531.1902
UK03 January 2023ECONDATADec Final Manufacturing PMI 45.3, exptd 44.7 last 46.5At 31 month lows, and < 50 for 5 consecutive months. Output, new ord and employment all ↓ at faster rates.Weak data weighs on GBPUSD, breaching 1.20 level to lows of 1.1899GBPUSD.1.20441.1966