| Country | Date | Event Type | Market Event | Context | Market Reaction | Indicator | Open | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 03 April 2023 | ECONDATA | Mar S&P Mfg PMI 49.2 last 47.3 Mar ISM Mfg PMI 46.3 last 47.7 Fed Cook: Disinflationary process happening, but we are not there yet. Labour mkt still tight, seeing inflation as result. Fed Bullard: OPEC+ decision to cut output was unexptd, ↑ in oil prices will make Fed’s job of ↓ inflation more challenging. | Mfg activity lowest in nearly 3 yrs. ISM < exptd leads to weaker USD as it adds to narrative Fed is nearing end of hiking cycle. OPEC+ impact on USD up was limited. | USD gives up gains after OPEC + on all other data. Yields dropped too. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.59 4.09% | 102.09 3.97% |
| US | 03 April 2023 | EVENT | Saudia Arabia and OPEC+ announced surprise round of output cuts of around 1.16mln bpd. | Potentially bad sign for global inflation days after slowdown in US PCE that boosted optimism. Also cements chance of US hike. | Exptd ↑ in crude prices. Friday’s close was 79.89 in Brent and it broke the $80 level on Monday. | Brent Crude | 86.0000 | 84.9300 |
| US | 31 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb PCE MoM 0.3% last 0.6% Fed Williams: Various measures of longer run inflation expectations have remained anchored at levels consistent with our 2% goal. Expect inflation to decline to around 3.25% this yr, before moving closer to our longer run goal in next 2 yrs. Fed Colins: Tight monetary policy key to lowering inflation. Surprises make it hard to predict next FOMC. | PCE < exptd and previous. Its slowing but only gradually, still elevated to accommodate 1 more hike. | Firmer USD though yields have dropped for the week and day on expectations Fed is nearing end of hiking cycle. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.19 4.12% | 102.5 4.02% |
| US | 30 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Q4 GDP Final QoQ 2.6%, last 3.2% Fed Barkin: If inflation persists, we can react by raising rates further. Content with FOMC trajectory. Fed Kashkari: US has high inflation but its not driven by wages. Have to bring inflation down. Unclear how much of banking stresses of the past few wks leading to a sustained credit crunch. | GDP slight downgrade from previous est, but shows resilience despite ↑ in rates. | USD continues to ease. | USD index | 102.6200 | 102.1400 |
| US | 28 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Mar Consumer Confidence 104.2 exptd 103.4 Fed Barr: Anticipate need to strengthen capital and liquidity standards. Fed will propose ‘long term debt requirement’ for big banks not designated as global systemically important. | No surprises from Barr. | US yields were higher but that did not help the USD, index at lows of 102.38 | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.75 3.09% | 102.38 4.08% |
| US | 24 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Mar PMI Flash Manufacturing 49.3 last 47.3 Services 53.8 last 50.6 Comp 53.3 last 50.1 Fed Bullard: Swift response to bank stress allows monetary policy focus on inflation. Latest FOMC projections suggest one more rate hike. | Fastest uptick in US pvt sector business activity in almost a year, but moves driven by DB CDS ↑. Safe haven demand outweighs rate hike expectations. | USD ↑ on safe haven demand due to DB. | USD index | 102.6000 | 103.1100 |
| US | 22 March 2023 | CENTRALBANK | Fed hikes rates – Fed Funds rate by 25 bps to 5% Fed’s revised SEP (Summary of econ projections) median view of end 2023 fed funds rate unch at 5.1%, continued QE Ops – $95bln a month. Statement: Labour mkt remains strong, inflation elevated, strongly committed to returning inflation to 2% target. Fed Powell: Isolated banking problems can threaten banking system if not addressed. Recent events will result in tighter conditions – may mean tightening has less work to do. Rate cuts this year NOT our baseline expectation. | Given median plot at 5.1%, indicates Fed is nearly done. Mkts paid little heed to Powel’s stress on no rate cuts this year. Widely expected decision, and points to only one more hike this yr. Statement no longer says ‘ongoing increases’. | USD slide across the board on the dovish hike. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.19 4.17% | 102.34 3.94% |
| US | 20 March 2023 | TALK | Trsry Sec Yellen: US Financial system safest and most liquid in the world, USD reserve status should be priced and not be threatened. | Better risk appetite in the mkt due to UBS buying CS and coordinated action by central banks. | USD and VIX (Vol Index) ↓ broadly for the day | USD Index | 103.3100 | 103.2500 |
| US | 20 March 2023 | EVENT | Fed + 5 central banks coordinated action to boost liquidity USD funding. Daily Operations will begin Monday and last till end April. | The markets are focusing on the Fed’s decision in coming days. | Weekend news | USD Index | 103.8600 | 103.2800 |
| US | 17 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Industrial Prodn YoY -0.2% last +0.5% MoM 0% last 0.3% March Prelim UoM Consumer sentiment 63.4 last 67 | Consumer sentiment ↓ for 1st time in 4 months. | USD continues decline together with yields following rescue of First Republic Bank by 11 banks. | USD Index US 10 year yields | 104.41 3.58% | 103.7 3.43% |
| US | 15 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb PPI MoM -0.1% last 0.3% Feb Retail Sales MoM -0.4% last 3.2%, YoY 5.4% last 7.7% | Both ↓, Gives Fed more room to potentially pause as they weigh banking crisis impact against inflation risks. Bank term Funding Program seems to have calmed mkts. | Safe haven demand driven ↑ in the USD as banking crisis spills. However, long term USD yields are ↓ which might put a check on the USD. | USD index US 10 year yields | 103.73 3.69% | 104.64 3.45% |
| US | 14 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb CPI YoY 6% last 6.4% MoM 0.4% last 0.5% Feb Core CPI MoM 0.5% last 0.4% | Fed more closely watches the core rate. Focus is fully on banking regulation on SVB and Signature bank collapse. | USD shows little reaction to data, in narrow ranges. | USD Index | 103.6700 | 103.5900 |
| US | 13 March 2023 | EVENT | SVB, 16th largest bank in the US with $209bln in assets (as of Dec 31, 2022) collapsed. Trsry Sec Yellen: No bailout for SVB but hinted something to shore up depositor confidence. | Concerns around deposit outflows, and what about EU and JP banks that have also had low rates. | Saw yields and rate hike expectations ↓ sharply with USD. 2 year yields touched lows of 3.94% | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.63 4.47% | 103.59 3.98% |
| US | 10 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Non Farm Payrolls 311K last 504K Feb Unemp rate at 3.6% last 3.4% Feb Avge Hrly Earnings YoY 4.6% last 4.4% | Mixed report. While > exptd, mkt is beginning to focus on SVB collapse and factoring in lesser quantum of hikes: FDIC reports $620bln of unrealized losses. | Mainly driven by SVB drama, USD yields ↓ with 2 yr touching lows of 4.57% taking USD with it. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 105.12 4.87% | 104.57 4.59% |
| US | 08 March 2023 | TALK CENTRAL BANK | Fed Powell: Not made any decn about March meeting, its data-dependant. Costs of not getting inflation down will be extremely high. Aware of lags of monetary policy effects. Fed Beige book: US economic activity increased slightly from Jan – late Feb. Businesses reported moderation in infaltion. | Powell offers no major surprise, backtracked a bit from the more hawkish earlier. Mkts awaiting non farm payrolls. | range bound pre- NFP | USD index | 105.6700 | 105.6500 |
| US | 07 March 2023 | TALK | Fed Powell: If totality of data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, Fed is prepared to hike faster than previously anticipated. Core inflation has not come down as fast as we hoped. | More hawkish than exptd. | 2 year yields > 5% and broad ↑ in USD across the board. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.29 4.89% | 105.61 5.01% |
| US | 06 March 2023 | TALK | Fed Daly: If inflation and labour market hotter than exptd, interest rates will need to go higher and stay there for longer. | Continued higher for longer hawkish talk. | Lack of big direction at the moment in this NFP/ Powell speech week, narrow ranges. | USD Index | 105.6700 | 105.6500 |
| US | 03 March 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb ISM Non Manufacturing PMI 55.1 last 55.2 Feb Final S&P Services PMI 50.6 last 46.8 Comp PMI 50.1 last 46.8 Fed Waller: Inflation not easing as exptd, open to increasing rates if price pressures don’t reduce. | ISM just a tick lower than last but > exptd, signalling economy is strong. | Broad USD pullback for the day | USD Index | 104.9300 | 104.5200 |
| US | 02 March 2023 | TALK | Fed Colins: More rate hikes needed to curb inflation. Fed Bostic: Could be in a position to pause by mid to late summer. Firmly in the 25 bp move camp. Wanted a 5-5.25% rate. | Dovish Bostic. | 10 year yields reached intraday highs of 4.09%, while 2Y yields rose to levels last seen in 2007. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.38 4.87% | 105.02 4.89% |
| US | 01 March 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.7 last 47.4 Feb S&P Manufacturing PMI Final 47.3 last 46.9 Fed Kashkari: Wage growth too high to be consistent with 2% inflation. Fed Bolstic: Policy rate needs to remain at 5-5.25% well into 2024. | ISM in contraction but most interest in prices component which rose sharply. Hawkish remarks | US 10 year yields rose > 4% to highs of 1.01% for 1st time since Nov last year. While yields jumped, USD index closed lower. | USD index US 10 year yields | 105.04 3.92% | 104.48 3.99% |
| US | 28 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb CB Consumer Confidence 102.9 last 106 | Unexpected decline, 2nd consecutive ↓. Reflects more pessimistic views on jobs, incomes and business conditions in next 6 months. | The release took its toll on USD, that touched lows of 104.41 | USD index | 104.6300 | 104.8600 |
| US | 27 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Jefferson: Possible for inflation to ↓ without an unnecessary decline in job market. Important to get back to 2% inflation to allow sustained economic gains. | $ index stays under modest bearish pressure as USD index closed lower for the day. | USD index | 105.2600 | 104.5400 | |
| US | 24 February 2023 | ECONDATA TALK | Jan PCE Core price index MoM 0.6% last 0.4% Jan Personal spending MoM 1.8% last -0.1% Fed Bullard: Calling for 50 bps hike, to move quickly and re-establish credibility now. Fed Collins: Further rate increases to reach sufficiently restrictive level, holding there for perhaps extended time. | Fed’s preferred measure of inflation > exptd, increasing urgency for Fed to do more tightening over coming months. PCE deflator highest since July 2022. | ↑ in rate hike expectations, USD, and spike in short term Yields as exptd. 2 yr yields at 3 month highs. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.55 4.70% | 105.21 4.82% |
| US | 23 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 2.7% last 3.2% Q4 PCE QoQ 2nd Est 3.7% lsat 4.3% | < previous estimate, sign rate hikes are having more of an impact than initially thought. Inflation however is running hotter than expected. | $ continues its 3rd successive ↑ for the day. | $ Index | 104.4900 | 104.5900 |
| US | 22 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK TALK | FOMC Minutes from Jan 31-Feb1 meeting: Nearly all favoured a scale down in pace of rate hikes. Curbing high inflation would be a key factor. Continued job mkt will contribute to upward pressure on inflation. Fed Bullard: more aggressive hikes would give Fed better chance to tame inflation. Fed Williams: Committed to getting back to 2% in next few years. Price stability a fundamental need. | Largely hawkish mins, Mkts pricing higher-for-longer rates, minutes within expectations. | No reason to move even higher but $ generally rises supported by yields. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.12 4.72% | 104.58 4.69% |
| US | 21 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Feb Flash PMI Manufacturing 47.8, last 46.9 Services 50.5 last 46.8 Composite 50.2 last 46.8 | All > exptd. Resumption of uptrend in the $. | Yields and USD stronger. | USD index US 10 year yields | 103.91 3.84% | 104.17 3.95% |
| US | 17 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Barkin: Like the 25 bp path as I believe it gives flexibility to respond to the economy. I think its what best balances the uncertainty in the economy. Fmr Tresaury Sec Summers: Fed has been trying to put breaks on and does not look like they are working. | Less hawkish talk, advocating the 25 bp path. Overall mixed. | Presidents day holiday, limited reactions | USD Index | 104.2000 | 103.8600 |
| US | 16 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Bullard@: Continued rate increases would ‘lock in’ slowing inflation. Fed Mester: Demand side of economy not softening as exptd, expecting growth to slow appreciably this year. Doubt there will be a need to cut rates this year. Fed will need to go > 5% and stay there for a while. | Nothing new | $ in consolidation mode after the spike up yesterday. No big moves on the comments | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.88 4.63% | 103.85 4.64% |
| US | 15 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Retail Sales MoM 3%, last -1.1%, exptd 1.8% YoY at 6.4% last 5.9% Jan Industrial Prodn YoY 0.8% last 1.1% MoM 0% last -1% | > exptd, another sign of likely re-acceleration in cyclical growth. | USD ↑ to fresh highs of 104.11 (levels last seen 6th Jan) | USD index US 10 year yields | 103.21 3.75% | 103.92 3.80% |
| US | 14 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Logan: Must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated. Fed Williams and Harker: Work to control inflation not yet done. | Continued hawkish tone. | Yields and USD stronger after a lot of volatility following release. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.21 4.52% | 103.23 4.61% |
| US | 14 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan CPI YoY 6.4% last 6.5%, expd 6.2% MoM at 0.5% | > exptd. More evidence of higher for longer rates. | Yields and USD stronger after a lot of volatility following release. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.21 4.52% | 103.23 4.61% |
| US | 09 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Barkin: Effects of tightening has been substantial but macroeconomic data put back the risk of recession. | Overall lack of direction for USD despite the continued hawkish rhetoric. | $ benefits slightly for the day from higher bond yields and comments but closed lower. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.43 4.42% | 103.22 4.48% |
| US | 08 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Williams: Fed will watch the data to determine path of rates, still have work to do on rates. Fed Cook: Strongly committed to price stability and employment mandates of Fed, will need restrictive monetary policy for sometime. Fed Waller: Fed’s rapid rate hikes are paying off, but might be a long fight to reach 2% target. | All continued hawkish rhetoric. | $ index slightly higher, posting little gains to highs of 103.52 | USD index | 103.2600 | 103.4000 |
| US | 07 February 2023 | TALK | Fed Powell: Further hikes may be needed if strong labour data persists. Acknowledging the progress on inflation, but would take time to bring it down. Fed Kashkari: Strong labour market report means Fed would need to ↑ rates. Fed Bostic: Jobs data raises possibility of higher peak rates, but base case is still for 2 more hikes. | Powell Speak had a dovish start but finished on a hawkish tone. Essentially reiterated last week’s comments but this gives risk sentiment a boost. | Following Powell, $ index moved lower to touch lows of 103.00. Yields were flat for the day though 2 year touched 4.38% | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.53 4.47% | 103.42 4.47% |
| US | 03 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Non Farm payrolls 517K exptd 190K last 260K Dec Unemp 3.4% exptd 3.6% last 3.5% Dec Avge Hourly earnings MoM 0.3% last 0.4% exptd 0.3% Jan ISM Non Manufacturing PMI 55.2 last 49.2 | Unexpected rebound in service sector and strong jobs data – more hawkish trajectory for US rates. | $ rebounds sharply as $ index breaches 103.00 level. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 101.83 4.10% | 102.91 4.29% |
| US | 01 February 2023 | CENTRALBANK | Fed ↑ rates by 25 bps to 4.75% as widely expected. Fed Powell: +ve growth will continue but at subdued pace. Labour market very strong; disinflationary process in early stages. Likely to have to maintain restrictive stance for sometime. Rate cuts could take place this yr if inflation comes down much faster. | Powell famously used ‘disinflation’ 15 times in Q&A. Nod to slowing prices added to speculation of rate cuts this yr. | The USD ↓↓, celebrating dovish and relaxed remarks and risk-on sentiment. Rates softened. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.09 4.2% | 101.21 4.11% |
| US | 01 February 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.4 last 48.4 exptd 48 | 3rd straight month of contraction. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.19 4.24% | 102.09 4.20% |
|
| US | 31 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Consumer Confidence 107.1 last 109 | NO specific reaction to data but USD dips as mkts await Fed decision. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.19 4.24% | 102.09 4.20% |
|
| US | 27 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec PCE price Index YoY 5% last 5.5% Dec Core PCE Price Index MoM 0.3% last 0.2%; YoY 4.4% | YoY ↑ smallest since Oct 2021. Fed watches this closely. | USD broadly pulls up from multi day lows and yields closed higher for the day. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 101.71 4.18 | 101.92 4.20 |
| US | 26 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Q4 GDP Growth Rate Adv 2.9% last 3.2% | > exptd, strong data backs a hawkish Fed. Attention turns to Fed next week. | $ index was up while EURUSD was down, GBPUSD was flat and closed slightly higher. | USD Index GBPUSD EURUSD | 101.57 1.2397 1.0912 | 101.84 1.2406 1.0888 |
| US | 24 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan Area Flash PMI Manufacturing 46.8, last 46.2 Services 46.6 last 44.7 Composite 46.6, last 45 | Continues to contract though at softer pace than Dec. | Continued weakness in the $ seen as it closed lower. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 101.98 4.232% | 101.91 4.212% |
| US | 20 January 2023 | TALK | Fed Williams: With inflation still high and continued supply demand imbalances, policy still has more work to do to bring down inflation to 2%. Fed Brainard: Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sometime. Fed Waller: Favours 25 bp hike in next meeting. | Idea of possible pivot continues to weigh on the $, contrasting with the hawkish talk,. | $ was mixed through out the day as $ index was between ranges of 102.55 and 101.93 | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.07 4.13% | 101.93 4.17% |
| US | 18 January 2023 | TALK | Fed Harker: Fed needs to get rates > 5%, will let data dictate where rates peak. Reiterates support for 25 bp hikes, expecting rises a ‘few more times’ this year. Fed Bullard: Policy not yet in restrictive territory. Fed Mester: Fed needs to ‘keep going’. | Markets appear to shrug off the comments, with terminal rate expectations continuing to ↓. | $ reaction primarily based on retail sales numbers, ↓ for the day to lows of 101.52 | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.46 4.21% | 102.36 4.087% |
| US | 18 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Retail Sales MoM -1.1% exptd -0.8% last -1% YoY at 6% Dec Industrial Prodn MoM -0.7% exptd -0.1% last -0.6% | All < exptd. | $ reaction primarily based on retail sales numbers, ↓ for the day to lows of 101.52 | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.46 4.21% | 102.36 4.087% |
| US | 13 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Jan UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim 64.6, exptd 60.5, last 59.7 Inflation expectations 4%, last 4.4% | Inflation expectations lowest in nearly 2 yrs. | ↓ in the USD and front end yields. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 102.21 4.157% | 101.98 4.238% |
| US | 12 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec CPI YoY 6.5% as exptd, last 7.1% Dec CPI MoM -0.1% as exptd, last 0.1% Core CPI MoM 0.3% as exptd, last 0.2% | YoY lowest since Oct 2021. Headed in the right direction and clearly peaked. Fed Harker after data said 25 bps will be appropriate going fwd. | Sparks a $ selloff. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.06 4.22% | 102.24 4.15% |
| US | 12 January 2023 | TALK | Fed Larker: Expecting Fed to get rates just over 5%, then hold. Still worried about Long term effects of budget deficits. Likely to take couple of yrs to get inflation to 2%. Lower shelter costs take time to show in inflation data. | Particularly dovish | Moves $ index and 2 year yields lower for the day as can be seen. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.06 4.22% | 102.24 4.15% |
| US | 06 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Non Farm payrolls 223K exptd 200K last 256K (Rev) Dec Unemp 3.5% exptd 3.7% last 3.6% Dec Avge Hourly earnings MoM 0.3% exptd and last 0.4% | Payrolls was roughly in line, but Hourly earnings was the key for market to view the data as dovish. Debate over qtr/half pt hike comes down to CPI. | Lower yields, weaker $ | USD index US 2 year yields. | 105.05 4.46 | 103.87 4.25 |
| US | 06 January 2023 | TALK | Fed Bostic: Despite < exptd wage growth, Fed has more work to do and open to 2nd straight 50 bp increase. | Leads to more debate over 25/50 bp hike next meeting, which comes down to next week’s CPI. | Lower yields, weaker $ | USD index US 2 year yields. | 105.05 4.46 | 103.87 4.25 |
| US | 04 January 2023 | CENTRALBANK | FOMC Minutes of Dec 13-14 meeting: Inflation risks key factors being monitored, Concerns of ‘unwarranted’ easing in financial conditions that would undermine efforts to tame inflation. Further rate hikes needed, no cuts in 2023. | Despite Fed’s own forecast of over 5% in 2023, markets continue to price a dovish view. Mkts are heading into payrolls tomorrow. | Modest ↑ in 2 year rates while $ index range bound, struggles to advance. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.58 4.37 | 104.24 4.35 |
| US | 04 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.4, exptd 48.5 last 49 | One of the best indicators of US economy, 2nd consecutive month of contraction. +ve labour market story by JOLTS. | $ broadly falls on news from EZ (inflation), AU etc,. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 104.58 4.37 | 104.24 4.35 |
| US | 03 January 2023 | ECONDATA | Dec Manufacturing PMI 46.2 as exptd, last 47.7 | NFP is the big focus for the week. Overall risk on mode for the day | Confusing ↑ in the USD while yields are lower. | USD index US 2 year yields. | 103.66 4.40% | 104.51 4.37% |